Regular Season - 5 · 20 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus Super League 1 prediction

Levadia Municipal Stadium, Levaja

Our model says: Levadiakos 0–1 Olympiakos Piraeus

The model makes it 32% Levadiakos, 31% draw, 37% Olympiakos Piraeus — fair odds of 3.13, 3.23 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Levadiakos 1.10, Olympiakos Piraeus 1.25.

Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

Live win probability

From kick-off
Levadiakos32%3.13
Draw31%3.23
Olympiakos Piraeus37%2.70

These update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.

Model insights: Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus

48%
Both teams to score
42%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 14%0-1 11%0-0 10%

Every scoreline the model considered

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0101173
11014831
26752
3232
4
5
Levadiakos goals ↓ Olympiakos Piraeus goals →

Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Levadiakos wins, grey are draws, red are Olympiakos Piraeus wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Olympiakos Piraeus at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus

Levadiakos

  • D0-0away to Kifisia13 September 2026
  • L0-2Panetolikos6 September 2026
  • L0-2Panathinaikos31 August 2026
  • L0-4away to PAOK23 August 2026

Olympiakos Piraeus

  • L0-1OFI12 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Volos NFC5 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Asteras Tripolis30 August 2026
  • W1-0Atromitos22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Levadiakos401308-81
6Olympiakos Piraeus421132+17

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus

  • 14 February 2026Levadiakos 0–0 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
  • 27 September 2025Olympiakos Piraeus 3–2 LevadiakosSuper League 1
  • 2 February 2025Levadiakos 0–1 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
  • 20 October 2024Olympiakos Piraeus 2–2 LevadiakosSuper League 1
  • 5 March 2023Olympiakos Piraeus 6–0 LevadiakosSuper League 1
  • 9 November 2022Levadiakos 0–1 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1

Leading scorers: Levadiakos and Olympiakos Piraeus

Levadiakos

No league goals yet this season.

Olympiakos Piraeus

  • Jota Silva2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

Levadiakos carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.75 for Olympiakos Piraeus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.10 goals for Levadiakos and 1.25 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Levadiakos rate 0.66 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Olympiakos Piraeus rate 0.83 and 1.02.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Olympiakos Piraeus the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.1 expected goals for Levadiakos against 1.25 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Levadiakos's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.02 for Olympiakos Piraeus.