Kalamata vs Panathinaikos Super League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Kalamata 0-1 Panathinaikos.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Kalamata, 26% draw, 44% Panathinaikos — fair odds of 3.33, 3.85 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Panathinaikos at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Kalamata vs Panathinaikos
Line-ups
- 40N. VasiljevićG
- 22P. KaloutsikidisD
- 19M. J. BakayokoD
- 4S. StroungisD
- 97RodriguesD
- 17Julio AlonsoD
- 24E. HamzaM
- 23G. PiñeiroM
- 6D. DiarraM
- 9J. BolívarF
- 20A. Mendes MoreiraF
- 7J. CataldiM
- 32J. BonettoF
- 12I. ChatzitheodoridisD
- 16E. FrimpongM
- 1I. GeliosG
- 26P. GinisG
- 44A. GuessandD
- 29U. IgnjatovićD
- 91D. KurminowskiF
- 1Iñaki PeñaG
- 2D. CalabriaD
- 6S. de VrijD
- 55R. van DrongelenD
- 77G. KiriakopoulosD
- 22E. CamaraM
- 99L. GarcíaM
- 42K. KangwaM
- 21A. OunahiM
- 10Santino AndinoM
- 7A. TettehF
- 5A. Salah-EddineD
- 74E. RastoderF
- 28F. PellistriM
- 14E. Palmer-BrownD
- 26I. LouzaM
- 70K. KotsarisG
- 18S. KontourisM
- 8Adriano JagušićM
- 9C. DessersF
Form going into Kalamata vs Panathinaikos
Kalamata
Super League 1
- W3-1Volos NFC13 September 2026
Panathinaikos
Super League 1
- W3-0Panetolikos13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Kalamata | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 10 |
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Kalamata and Panathinaikos
Kalamata
GoalsAssists
- D. Kurminowski40
- K. Vargas30
Panathinaikos
GoalsAssists
- A. Tetteh41
- V. Taborda31
- C. Dessers30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Panathinaikos won 1–0 at Kalamata. The model had made a win for Panathinaikos its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Andrews Tetteh 33' for Panathinaikos.
How the call on Kalamata v Panathinaikos has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 35% / 27% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 11 updates, it read 30% / 26% / 44%: the biggest move is Panathinaikos's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Kalamata win30%▼ −5
- Draw26%▼ −1
- Panathinaikos win44%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.