Polokwane City
vs
Amazulu
Premier Soccer League prediction
Our model says: Polokwane City 2–1 Amazulu
The model makes it 36% Polokwane City, 29% draw, 35% Amazulu — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Polokwane City 1.41, Amazulu 1.40.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Polokwane City vs Amazulu
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Polokwane City wins, grey are draws, red are Amazulu wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Polokwane City at 36% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Polokwane City vs Amazulu
Polokwane City
- D1-1Kaizer Chiefs12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Marumo Gallants4 September 2026
- D0-0Milford FC26 August 2026
- L0-2away to Sekhukhune United15 August 2026
- D3-3Stellenbosch11 August 2026
Amazulu
- W1-0Marumo Gallants12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Richards Bay4 September 2026
- L2-5away to Mamelodi Sundowns26 August 2026
- W2-0Siwelele15 August 2026
- D1-1Orlando Pirates12 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Polokwane City | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
| 3 | Amazulu | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Polokwane City and Amazulu
Polokwane City
No player in Premier Soccer League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Amazulu
- T. Ngwenya7 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Polokwane City carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.4 for Amazulu. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Polokwane City and 1.40 for Amazulu. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Polokwane City rate 0.58 in attack and 1.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Amazulu rate 0.60 and 1.49.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Amazulu, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Polokwane City a 0% chance of the title and Amazulu 1.4%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Polokwane City the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Polokwane City against 1.4 for Amazulu. Polokwane City's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.49 for Amazulu.