Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908 Super League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Iraklis 1908.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Aris Thessalonikis, 30% draw, 33% Iraklis 1908 — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aris Thessalonikis at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908
Line-ups
- 33Ricardo VelhoG
- 27N. FadigaD
- 4FabianoD
- 44B. ŠutaloD
- 3O. RichardsD
- 18M. HonglaM
- 10U. RačićM
- 7B. GarréM
- 70G. GianniotasM
- 9T. KadewereF
- 80Loren MorónF
- 24Apostolos barbopoulosG
- 19M. AlfarelaF
- 49O. BoussaidM
- 20T. Dele-BashiruM
- 5Manu GarcíaM
- 97F. JensenM
- 8C. KouaméF
- 21L. MajkićG
- 17Rafa MirF
- 33G. AthanasiadisG
- 30Carles SoriaD
- 2P. VourosD
- 21PiñaD
- 69Y. RocheD
- 31NanuD
- 11Ivi LópezM
- 90V. SourlisM
- 8N. RadojaM
- 18R. NizetM
- 43Pedro MarquesF
- 44R. LauritsenD
- 6CarlisM
- 9K. KushtaF
- 27M. KrainzM
- 7E. KoljićF
- 22K. KaïbouéD
- 1Georgios KarakasidisG
- 14J. HromadaM
- 4S. ChaklaD
Form going into Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908
Aris Thessalonikis
Super League 1
- L0-2away to PAOK13 September 2026
Iraklis 1908
Super League 1
- D1-1Atromitos12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Aris Thessalonikis | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 | Iraklis 1908 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Aris Thessalonikis and Iraklis 1908
Aris Thessalonikis
GoalsAssists
- Fabiano40
- C. Kouamé30
Iraklis 1908
No player in Super League 1's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Aris Thessalonikis and Iraklis 1908 drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Aris Thessalonikis at 37% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one.
How the call on Aris Thessalonikis v Iraklis 1908 has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 44% / 30% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 37% / 30% / 33%: the biggest move is Aris Thessalonikis's chance of winning, down 7 points.
- Aris Thessalonikis win37%▼ −7
- Draw30%=
- Iraklis 1908 win33%▲ +7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.