Aris Thessalonikis
vs
Iraklis 1908
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: Aris Thessalonikis 1–0 Iraklis 1908
The model makes it 37% Aris Thessalonikis, 30% draw, 33% Iraklis 1908 — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Aris Thessalonikis 1.34, Iraklis 1908 1.19.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Aris Thessalonikis wins, grey are draws, red are Iraklis 1908 wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aris Thessalonikis at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908
Aris Thessalonikis
- L0-2away to PAOK13 September 2026
- L0-5away to AEK Athens FC5 September 2026
- W2-1OFI30 August 2026
- W3-2away to Kalamata22 August 2026
Iraklis 1908
- D1-1Atromitos12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Asteras Tripolis7 September 2026
- D1-1away to Volos NFC29 August 2026
- L0-4away to AEK Athens FC22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Aris Thessalonikis | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 6 |
| 8 | Iraklis 1908 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Aris Thessalonikis and Iraklis 1908
Aris Thessalonikis
- Fabiano2 goals
Iraklis 1908
No player in Super League 1's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Aris Thessalonikis carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.61 for Iraklis 1908. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.19 for Iraklis 1908. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aris Thessalonikis rate 0.71 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Iraklis 1908 rate 0.71 and 1.16.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aris Thessalonikis the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis against 1.19 for Iraklis 1908. Aris Thessalonikis's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.16 for Iraklis 1908.