17 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Juventus vs NEC Nijmegen UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Allianz Stadium, Turin
Full time5 – 0

Final score: Juventus 5-0 NEC Nijmegen.

Before kick-off the model made it 61% Juventus, 23% draw, 16% NEC Nijmegen — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Juventus at 61% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Juventus99%Draw1%NEC Nijmegen0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Nicolás Iván Gonzalezassist: Kamil Grabara
9'
⚽Kerim Alajbegovicassist: Weston McKennie
24'
32'
🔁Clement Bischoffout: Dennis Geiger
⚽Nick Woltemade (pen)
35'
45'
🔁Almugera Kabarout: Jamiro Monteiro
52'
Jamiro Monteiro
Douglas Luiz Soares
53'
🔁Weston McKennieout: Gleison Bremer
60'
🔁Douglas Luiz Soaresout: Teun Koopmeiners
61'
🔁Nicolás Iván Gonzalezout: Francisco Conceicao
61'
67'
🔁Philippe Sandlerout: Perr Schuurs
🔁Kerim Alajbegovicout: Randal Kolo Muani
71'
⚽Zeki Çelikassist: Randal Kolo Muani
75'
78'
🔁Noe Lebretonout: Kevin Kers
79'
🔁Bryan Linssenout: Bram Nuytinck
⚽Randal Kolo Muaniassist: Jhon Lucumi
82'
🔁Nick Woltemadeout: Augusto Owusu
83'

Match stats — Juventus vs NEC Nijmegen

48%Possession52%
11Shots11
7On target3
0Corners1

Line-ups

Juventus 3-4-2-1
  • 1K. GrabaraG
  • 15P. KaluluD
  • 4F. GattiD
  • 26J. LucumíD
  • 2Z. ÇelikM
  • 12Douglas LuizM
  • 29P. SarrM
  • 22W. McKennieM
  • 31N. GonzálezM
  • 17Kerim-Sam AlajbegovićM
  • 27N. WoltemadeF
Substitutes
  • 3BremerD
  • 7Francisco ConceiçãoF
  • 48D. ElimoghaleF
  • 9R. Kolo MuaniF
  • 8T. KoopmeinersM
  • 41A. OwusuM
  • 43F. PagnuccoM
  • 23C. PinsoglioG
  • 25G. VicarioG
Coach: L. Spalletti
NEC Nijmegen 3-4-2-1
  • 12N. PolsterG
  • 21T. StormD
  • 3P. SandlerD
  • 66Almugera Raouf Mohammed KabarD
  • 99Clement BischoffM
  • 6D. NejašmićM
  • 20N. LebretonM
  • 77A. ThomasM
  • 9T. CheryM
  • 10D. TadićM
  • 30B. LinssenF
Substitutes
  • 73Gabriel BrásD
  • 18D. GeigerM
  • 38Joep GenesteG
  • 34Kevin KersF
  • 35Jamiro MonteiroM
  • 42Y. MoslihD
  • 17B. NuytinckD
  • 4P. SchuursD
  • 14K. SierhuisF
Coach: Dick Schreuder

Form going into Juventus vs NEC Nijmegen

Juventus

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3away to Sassuolo13 September 2026
  • D1-1AC Milan6 September 2026
  • W2-0Parma29 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Frosinone23 August 2026

NEC Nijmegen

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3away to Cambuur12 September 2026
  • D2-2Excelsior8 September 2026
  • L1-3Feyenoord5 September 2026
  • W3-1away to PEC Zwolle29 August 2026
  • L0-3away to Bodo/Glimt25 August 2026

What these results say

  • Juventus scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Juventus had two goals or fewer.
  • NEC Nijmegen conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for NEC Nijmegen had three goals or more.
  • NEC Nijmegen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Juventus321093+67
20NEC Nijmegen311158-34

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Juventus and NEC Nijmegen

Juventus

GoalsAssists

  • N. Woltemade31
  • R. Kolo Muani21

NEC Nijmegen

No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Juventus beat NEC Nijmegen 5–0. The model had made a win for Juventus its most likely outcome, at 61%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Nicolás Iván Gonzalez 9' for Juventus, Kerim Alajbegovic 24' for Juventus, Nick Woltemade (penalty) 35' for Juventus, Zeki Çelik 75' for Juventus, Randal Kolo Muani 82' for Juventus.

How the call on Juventus v NEC Nijmegen has moved

First published on 3 Sep at 57% / 24% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 61% / 23% / 16%: the biggest move is Juventus's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Juventus win61%▲ +4
  2. Draw23%▼ −1
  3. NEC Nijmegen win16%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.