Notts County
vs
Oxford United
League One prediction
Our model says: Notts County 0–1 Oxford United
The model makes it 30% Notts County, 31% draw, 39% Oxford United — fair odds of 3.33, 3.23 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Notts County 1.01, Oxford United 1.29.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Notts County vs Oxford United
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Oxford United at 39% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Notts County vs Oxford United
Notts County
- L0-2away to Reading19 September 2026
- L0-1Bradford12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Huddersfield5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Doncaster1 September 2026
- W2-1Burton Albion29 August 2026
Oxford United
- D1-1Cambridge United19 September 2026
- W3-0Burton Albion12 September 2026
- W4-0away to Leicester5 September 2026
- L1-3away to Huddersfield1 September 2026
- W2-1away to Stevenage22 August 2026
What these results say
- Notts County conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Notts County failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Notts County had two goals or fewer.
- Oxford United scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Oxford United had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Notts County | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| 6 | Oxford United | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Notts County and Oxford United
Notts County
- O. Cooper3 goals
Oxford United
- G. O'Donkor3 goals1 assists
- M. Harris3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Notts County carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.44 for Oxford United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.01 goals for Notts County and 1.29 for Oxford United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Notts County rate 0.47 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Oxford United rate 0.62 and 1.41.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Notts County a 0.1% chance of the title and Oxford United 12.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Oxford United the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Notts County against 1.29 for Oxford United. Notts County's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.41 for Oxford United.