Notts County vs Oxford United League One prediction & result
Final score: Notts County 1-2 Oxford United.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Notts County, 30% draw, 40% Oxford United — fair odds of 3.33, 3.33 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Oxford United at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Notts County vs Oxford United
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. GibbonsG
- 12L. NessD
- 3R. McDonaldD
- 4J. BedeauD
- 2J. GibbonsM
- 8O. CooperM
- 18M. PalmerM
- 26I. Samuels-SmithM
- 7C. RobertsM
- 11C. GrantM
- 9D. KanuF
- 15J. EvansM
- 27R. FinneranM
- 14D. LipsiucM
- 10R. Longelo-MbuleM
- 6M. SandersM
- 19L. SmythF
- 25N. TsaroullaD
- 1J. CummingG
- 30P. KiosoD
- 6M. HelikD
- 3C. BrownD
- 26J. CurrieD
- 11T. GoodrhamM
- 8C. BrannaganM
- 57M. MissangaM
- 32L. SibleyM
- 23S. DembéléM
- 9M. HarrisF
- 20L. LynchF
- 19G. O'DonkorF
- 15B. SpencerD
- 13S. EastwoodG
- 2S. LongD
- 4Kai AndrewsM
- 27L. SnowdenF
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Notts County | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 14 |
| 3 | Oxford United | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Notts County vs Oxford United
- 2 January 2016Notts County 2–4 Oxford UnitedLeague Two
- 18 August 2015Oxford United 3–1 Notts CountyLeague Two
Leading scorers: Notts County and Oxford United
Notts County
No player in League One's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Oxford United
GoalsAssists
- M. Harris61
- G. O'Donkor42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Oxford United won 2–1 at Notts County. The model had made a win for Oxford United its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Mark Harris 18' for Oxford United, Cameron Brannagan 88' for Oxford United, Rory Finneran 90+1' for Notts County. On expected goals it finished 0.71–1.25.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Notts County a 13.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 10.5% after a win, 13.5% after a draw, 15.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.7%, 2 points higher than before the match.
For Oxford United the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 49.6% going in: 55.2% after a win, 47.9% after a draw, 43.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 55.2%, 5.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.