Stockport County
vs
Barnsley
League One prediction
Our model says: Stockport County 2–1 Barnsley
The model makes it 52% Stockport County, 25% draw, 23% Barnsley — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Stockport County 2.24, Barnsley 1.09.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Stockport County vs Barnsley
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stockport County at 52% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 675 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Stockport County vs Barnsley
Stockport County
- D0-0away to Sheffield Wednesday19 September 2026
- L3-4Leicester12 September 2026
- W4-0away to Wigan5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Luton2 September 2026
- W5-1Wycombe29 August 2026
Barnsley
- D1-1Leicester19 September 2026
- L0-3away to Plymouth12 September 2026
- L1-5Stevenage5 September 2026
- W2-1Blackpool2 September 2026
- W3-1away to Leyton Orient29 August 2026
What these results say
- Barnsley conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Barnsley scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Barnsley had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Stockport County | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 10 |
| 18 | Barnsley | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Stockport County and Barnsley
Stockport County
- J. Diamond4 goals2 assists
- K. Wootton4 goals1 assists
- H. Wood3 goals
Barnsley
No player in League One's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Stockport County carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.15 for Barnsley. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.24 goals for Stockport County and 1.09 for Barnsley. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Stockport County rate 0.71 in attack and 1.72 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Barnsley rate 0.51 and 2.07.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stockport County a 5.8% chance of the title and Barnsley 0.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stockport County the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Stockport County against 1.09 for Barnsley. Stockport County's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/2.07 for Barnsley.