10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Stockport County vs Barnsley League One prediction & result

Edgeley Park, Stockport
Referee: Martin Coy
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Stockport County 3-1 Barnsley.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% Stockport County, 23% draw, 19% Barnsley — fair odds of 1.72, 4.35 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Stockport County at 58%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Stockport County97%Draw3%Barnsley0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
⚽Patrick Kelly
25'
Cameron McGeehan
🔁Lewis Bateout: Lewis Fiorini
45'
⚽Kyle Woottonassist: Oliver Norwood
61'
Harry Wood
63'
63'
🔁Tyrese Noslinout: Jubril Okedina
🔁Harry Woodout: Jason Adigun
66'
70'
🔁Connor O'Riordanout: S. Gale
70'
🔁Royce Brownlieout: Jonathan Bland
⚽Kyle Woottonassist: Jason Adigun
73'
82'
🔁Vimal Yoganathanout: O'Rian Andrew Reid
83'
Jack Shepherd
🔁Ryan Gloverout: Josh Cogley
86'
🔁Jack Diamondout: Mikael Mandron
86'
⚽Mikael Mandronassist: Jason Adigun
90'
🔁Ben Osbornout: Mamadou Jobe
90+5'

Match stats — Stockport County vs Barnsley

57%Possession43%
16Shots18
4On target9
11Corners6
1.93xG1.43

Goals against chances

Stockport County3 from 1.93 xGmore than the chances were worth
Barnsley1 from 1.43 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Stockport County 3-4-3
  • 1Oliver WhatmuffG
  • 24Kyron Silveria GordonD
  • 6E. O'ConnellD
  • 5E. PyeD
  • 15R. GloverM
  • 4L. BateM
  • 10O. NorwoodM
  • 23B. OsbornM
  • 7J. DiamondF
  • 19K. WoottonF
  • 16H. WoodF
Substitutes
  • 18L. FioriniM
  • 30Ethan EnnisF
  • 2J. Dacres-CogleyD
  • 9B. AndréssonF
  • 20J. AdigunM
  • 25M. JobeD
  • 22M. MandronF
Coach: J. McNulty
Barnsley 4-2-3-1
  • 25Rogan RavenhillG
  • 11T. NoslinD
  • 6C. O'RiordanD
  • 5J. ShepherdD
  • 2A. KayD
  • 8C. McGeehanM
  • 45Vimal YoganathanM
  • 17Amani RichardsM
  • 22Patrick KellyM
  • 19R. ClearyM
  • 32Royce BrownlieF
Substitutes
  • 36L. AlkerF
  • 30Jonathan BlandM
  • 51Kieren FlavellG
  • 4S. GaleD
  • 12J. OkedinaD
  • 46O'Rian Andrew ReidM
  • 13C. TaylorF
Coach: D. Stendel

Form going into Stockport County vs Barnsley

Stockport County

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Peterborough26 September 2026

Barnsley

No earlier matches on record this season.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Stockport County148242614+1226
23Barnsley122371222-109

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Stockport County vs Barnsley

  • 2 May 2026Barnsley 1–3 Stockport CountyLeague One
  • 29 November 2025Stockport County 1–1 BarnsleyLeague One
  • 8 February 2025Stockport County 2–1 BarnsleyLeague One
  • 28 September 2024Barnsley 1–1 Stockport CountyLeague One

Leading scorers: Stockport County and Barnsley

Stockport County

GoalsAssists

  • K. Wootton91
  • J. Diamond53

Barnsley

No player in League One's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Stockport County beat Barnsley 3–1. The model had made a win for Stockport County its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Patrick Kelly 13' for Barnsley, Kyle Wootton 61' for Stockport County, Kyle Wootton 73' for Stockport County, Mikael Mandron 90' for Stockport County. On expected goals it finished 1.93–1.43.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Stockport County a 44.7% chance to finish in the top four: 48.0% after a win, 40.4% after a draw, 36.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 48.0%, 3.3 points higher than before the match.

For Barnsley the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 22.7% going in: 17.7% after a win, 21.9% after a draw, 24.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.1%, 1.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Stockport County v Barnsley has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 52% / 25% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 58% / 23% / 19%: the biggest move is Stockport County's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Stockport County win58%▲ +6
  2. Draw23%▼ −2
  3. Barnsley win19%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.