Plymouth
vs
AFC Wimbledon
League One prediction
Our model says: Plymouth 2–0 AFC Wimbledon
The model makes it 53% Plymouth, 26% draw, 21% AFC Wimbledon — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Plymouth 2.06, AFC Wimbledon 0.87.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Plymouth at 53% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 675 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon
Plymouth
- W4-2away to Blackpool19 September 2026
- W3-0Barnsley12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Doncaster5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Leicester1 September 2026
- W2-0Bradford29 August 2026
AFC Wimbledon
- D0-0Milton Keynes Dons17 September 2026
- W1-0Doncaster12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Bromley7 September 2026
- L1-4away to Burton Albion2 September 2026
- W1-0Wigan30 August 2026
What these results say
- Plymouth won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Plymouth scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- AFC Wimbledon scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- AFC Wimbledon kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for AFC Wimbledon had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Plymouth | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 13 |
| 7 | AFC Wimbledon | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon
Plymouth
- A. Pepple3 goals
- O. Irow3 goals
AFC Wimbledon
- M. Hippolyte3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Plymouth carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.1 for AFC Wimbledon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.06 goals for Plymouth and 0.87 for AFC Wimbledon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Plymouth rate 0.73 in attack and 1.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AFC Wimbledon rate 0.40 and 1.85.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Plymouth a 31.5% chance of the title and AFC Wimbledon 0.4%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Plymouth the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Plymouth against 0.87 for AFC Wimbledon. Plymouth's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.4/1.85 for AFC Wimbledon.