10 October 2026, 11:30 UTC

Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon League One prediction & result

Home Park, Plymouth
Referee: Stephen Parkinson
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Plymouth 2-1 AFC Wimbledon.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% Plymouth, 24% draw, 18% AFC Wimbledon — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Plymouth at 58%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Plymouth6%Draw92%AFC Wimbledon2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
⚽Jayden Stockleyassist: Callum Maycock
17'
🔁Isaac Ogundereout: Freddie Simmonds
⚽Caleb Watts
25'
🔁Joe Edwardsout: Matthew Sorinola
30'
🔁Oliver Irowout: Xavier Amaechi
65'
76'
🔁Callum Maycockout: Marcus Browne
77'
🔁Ollie Harrisonout: Zack Nelson
🔁Caleb Wattsout: Tyreeq Bakinson
77'
🔁Wes Hardingout: Alex·Hartridge
78'
90+1'
🔁Aron Sasuout: Steven Sessegnon
⚽Xavier Amaechiassist: Alex·Hartridge
90+5'
Xavier Amaechi
90+6'

Match stats — Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon

55%Possession45%
18Shots14
8On target5
4Corners9
1.76xG1

Goals against chances

Plymouth2 from 1.76 xGabout what the chances were worth
AFC Wimbledon1 from 1.00 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Plymouth 4-4-1-1
  • 1M. MahoneyG
  • 8J. EdwardsD
  • 2M. RossD
  • 15A. MitchellD
  • 45W. HardingD
  • 11R. CurtisM
  • 23B. IbrahimM
  • 7H. WhiteM
  • 14O. IrowM
  • 17C. WattsM
  • 9W. EvansF
Substitutes
  • 10X. AmaechiF
  • 19T. BakinsonM
  • 38Seb CampbellM
  • 22A. HartridgeD
  • 3Jack MackenzieD
  • 29M. SorinolaD
  • 21James StorerG
Coach: Tom Cleverley
AFC Wimbledon 3-4-2-1
  • 39J. BursikG
  • 17A. YiadomD
  • 33I. OgundereD
  • 6R. JohnsonD
  • 29A. SasuM
  • 12A. SmithM
  • 5O. HarrisonM
  • 3S. SeddonM
  • 8C. MaycockM
  • 21M. HippolyteM
  • 9J. StockleyF
Substitutes
  • 11M. BrowneM
  • 23H. CornickF
  • 10Z. NelsonM
  • 2S. SessegnonD
  • 15F. SimmondsD
  • 1N. BishopG
  • 22R. HoranD
Coach: J. Jackson

Form going into Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon

Plymouth

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to Leyton Orient3 October 2026
  • L0-1Burton Albion26 September 2026

AFC Wimbledon

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Cambridge United26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Plymouth147252119+223
18AFC Wimbledon13346921-1213

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon

  • 18 April 2026AFC Wimbledon 1–3 PlymouthLeague One
  • 18 October 2025Plymouth 1–2 AFC WimbledonLeague One
  • 21 December 2022Plymouth 3–3 AFC WimbledonEFL Trophy
  • 8 March 2022Plymouth 2–0 AFC WimbledonLeague One
  • 18 September 2021AFC Wimbledon 0–1 PlymouthLeague One

Leading scorers: Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon

Plymouth

GoalsAssists

  • A. Pepple50

AFC Wimbledon

GoalsAssists

  • J. Stockley61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Plymouth beat AFC Wimbledon 2–1. The model had made a win for Plymouth its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Jayden Stockley 16' for AFC Wimbledon, Caleb Watts 25' for Plymouth, Xavier Amaechi 90+5' for Plymouth. On expected goals it finished 1.76–1.00.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Plymouth a 55.1% chance to finish in the top four: 58.6% after a win, 50.6% after a draw, 47.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.6%, 3.5 points higher than before the match.

For AFC Wimbledon the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 22.7% going in: 16.3% after a win, 20.6% after a draw, 24.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.6%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Plymouth v AFC Wimbledon has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 53% / 26% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 58% / 24% / 18%: the biggest move is Plymouth's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Plymouth win58%▲ +5
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. AFC Wimbledon win18%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.