10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Stevenage vs Wigan League One prediction & result

SPORTA Arena, Stevenage
Referee: Abigail Byrne
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Stevenage 1-0 Wigan.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Stevenage, 31% draw, 22% Wigan — fair odds of 2.13, 3.23 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Stevenage at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Stevenage98%Draw2%Wigan0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
Finley Burns
53'
Charlie Gray
⚽Wanya Marcalassist: Josh Magennis
60'
64'
🔁Jeremiah Chilokoa-Mullenout: Fraser Murray
64'
🔁Bradley Burrowesout: Reggie Walsh
🔁O. Sandersonout: Ben Broggio
66'
🔁Matthew Smithout: Louis Thompson
66'
69'
Reggie Walsh
🔁Wanya Marcalout: Phoenix Patterson
79'
🔁Josh Magennisout: Michael Mellon
79'
85'
🔁Jensen Weirout: Archie Harris
85'
🔁Jon Mellishout: Sonny Tufail Perkins
90+4'
James Carragher

Match stats — Stevenage vs Wigan

40%Possession60%
15Shots6
6On target1
2Corners7
2.16xG0.24

Goals against chances

Stevenage1 from 2.16 xGless than the chances were worth
Wigan0 from 0.24 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Stevenage 3-4-1-2
  • 1T. SetfordG
  • 15T. VancootenD
  • 2L. James-WildinD
  • 5C. PiergianniD
  • 25Wanya MarçalM
  • 8D. PhillipsM
  • 24M. SmithM
  • 14S. EarleyM
  • 10D. KempM
  • 18O. SandersonF
  • 9J. MagennisF
Substitutes
  • 44P. PattersonF
  • 4J. HoughtonM
  • 16K. CaseyD
  • 27B. BroggioF
  • 12D. BardenG
  • 28M. MellonF
  • 23L. ThompsonM
Coach: A. Revell
Wigan 3-4-2-1
  • 41J. WhitworthG
  • 23J. CarragherD
  • 5F. BurnsD
  • 4J. Chilokoa-MullenD
  • 2C. BarrettM
  • 18Charlie GrayM
  • 8M. PowerM
  • 22J. MellishM
  • 6J. WeirM
  • 27B. BurrowsM
  • 25S. HoganF
Substitutes
  • 16Archie HarrisD
  • 21K'Marni MillerD
  • 7F. MurrayM
  • 38C. SaydeeF
  • 9S. PerkinsF
  • 1J. WalshG
  • 10R. WalshM
Coach: G. Caldwell

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Stevenage124441713+416
21Wigan143291122-1111

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Stevenage vs Wigan

  • 2 May 2026Stevenage 1–0 WiganLeague One
  • 29 November 2025Wigan 0–0 StevenageLeague One
  • 18 January 2025Stevenage 1–2 WiganLeague One
  • 24 September 2024Wigan 0–0 StevenageLeague One
  • 27 January 2024Wigan 2–3 StevenageLeague One

The result against the call

Stevenage beat Wigan 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Stevenage at 47%. The goal: Wanya Marcal 60' for Stevenage. On expected goals it finished 2.16–0.24.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Stevenage a 7.5% chance to finish in the top four: 9.2% after a win, 6.0% after a draw, 4.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.2%, 1.7 points higher than before the match.

For Wigan the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 47.7% going in: 39.7% after a win, 48.3% after a draw, 50.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 50.7%, 3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Stevenage v Wigan has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 43% / 32% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 47% / 31% / 22%: the biggest move is Stevenage's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Stevenage win47%▲ +4
  2. Draw31%▼ −1
  3. Wigan win22%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.