Nottingham Forest
vs
Leeds
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 50% Nottingham Forest, 21% draw, 29% Leeds — fair odds of 2.00, 4.76 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Nottingham Forest 2.27, Leeds 1.74.
Both teams to score: 74%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Nottingham Forest vs Leeds
- 6 February 2026Leeds 3–1 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 9 November 2025Nottingham Forest 3–1 LeedsPremier League
- 27 July 2023Nottingham Forest 0–2 LeedsFriendlies Clubs
- 4 April 2023Leeds 2–1 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 5 February 2023Nottingham Forest 1–0 LeedsPremier League
- 8 February 2020Nottingham Forest 2–0 LeedsChampionship
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Nottingham Forest carry a model rating of 6.87 against 6.89 for Leeds. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.27 goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.74 for Leeds. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nottingham Forest rate 1.11 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Leeds rate 1.16 and 1.08.
That points to 76% for over two and a half goals and 74% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nottingham Forest the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Nottingham Forest against 1.74 for Leeds. Nottingham Forest's attack/defence rating is 1.11/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.16/1.08 for Leeds.