Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Nottingham Forest 0-1 Leeds.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Nottingham Forest, 21% draw, 30% Leeds — fair odds of 2.04, 4.76 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Nottingham Forest at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Nottingham Forest vs Leeds
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 26Matz SelsG
- 23JairD
- 31Nikola MilenkovićD
- 5MurilloD
- 34Ola AinaM
- 24James McAteeM
- 6Ibrahim SangaréM
- 3Neco WilliamsM
- 14Dan NdoyeF
- 10Morgan Gibbs-WhiteF
- 11Igor JesusF
- 9Chris WoodF
- 25Luca NetzD
- 21Xaver SchlagerM
- 15Arnaud KalimuendoF
- 12John VictorG
- 2Ousmane DiomandeD
- 44Zach AbbottD
- 8Nicolás DomínguezM
- 7Callum Hudson OdoiF
- 1James TraffordG
- 6Joe RodonD
- 15Jaka BijolD
- 5Tarik MuharemovićD
- 2Jayden BogleM
- 18Anton StachM
- 4Ethan AmpaduM
- 24James JustinM
- 10Harry WilsonF
- 11Brenden AaronsonF
- 9Dominic Calvert-LewinF
- 19Noah OkaforF
- 8Sean LongstaffM
- 23Lucas PerriG
- 65Jayden LienouD
- 30Nico ElvediD
- 50Alfie CresswellM
- 22Ao TanakaM
- 7Daniel JamesF
- 14Lukas NmechaF
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 9 |
| 9 | Leeds | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Nottingham Forest vs Leeds
- 6 February 2026Leeds 3–1 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 9 November 2025Nottingham Forest 3–1 LeedsPremier League
- 27 July 2023Nottingham Forest 0–2 LeedsFriendlies Clubs
- 4 April 2023Leeds 2–1 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 5 February 2023Nottingham Forest 1–0 LeedsPremier League
Leading scorers: Nottingham Forest and Leeds
Nottingham Forest
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Leeds
GoalsAssists
- D. Calvert-Lewin31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Leeds won 1–0 at Nottingham Forest. The model had leaned towards a win for Nottingham Forest at 49% and given a win for Leeds 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: A. Stach 88' for Leeds. On expected goals it finished 0.65–0.49.