22 August 2026, 16:15 UTC

Charleroi vs KV Mechelen Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Charleroi 2-0 KV Mechelen.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Charleroi, 26% draw, 19% KV Mechelen — fair odds of 1.82, 3.85 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Charleroi at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Charleroi99%Draw1%KV Mechelen0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽A. Ousouassist: P. Pflucke
35'
🔁P. Pfluckeout: F. Mbemba
62'
65'
🔁M. Lohunanu-Mbasiout: B. Bafdili
66'
🔁B. Ramanout: S. Ayodele
🔁A. Boukamirout: I. Cisse
74'
🔁A. Scheidlerout: A. Colassin
74'
76'
🔁D. Praetout: M. Kireev
76'
🔁C. Van Meirvenneout: K. Vanrafelghem
⚽K. Van Den Kerkhofassist: A. Colassin
77'
🔁A. Bernierout: M. Sow
88'
🔁M. Nzitaout: A. Bojang
88'

Match stats — Charleroi vs KV Mechelen

60%Possession40%
12Shots5
4On target0
3Corners2
1.44xG0.23

Goals against chances

Charleroi2 from 1.44 xGmore than the chances were worth
KV Mechelen0 from 0.23 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Charleroi 4-2-3-1
  • 30M. KoneG
  • 3K. Van Den KerkhofD
  • 4A. OusouD
  • 95C. KeitaD
  • 24M. NzitaD
  • 6A. BoukamirM
  • 18Y. KhalifiM
  • 14P. PfluckeM
  • 8J. RomsaasM
  • 17A. BernierM
  • 21A. ScheidlerF
Substitutes
  • 1M. Delavallee
  • 65R. TeugelsD
  • 44M. SowD
  • 33N. SolheidD
  • 51M. KeraM
  • 19I. CisseM
  • 25A. ColassinF
  • 20F. MbembaF
  • 9A. BojangF
Coach: Mario Kohnen
KV Mechelen 3-4-1-2
  • 13N. MirasG
  • 39M. DecoeneD
  • 2L. MarijnissenD
  • 3J. MarsaD
  • 17C. Van Meirvenne
  • 6F. HammarM
  • 26D. PraetM
  • 7T. KoudouM
  • 9M. van BrederodeF
  • 14B. RamanF
  • 19M. Lohunanu-MbasiF
Substitutes
  • 1O. De WolfG
  • 20K. CorbanieD
  • 22L. Golic
  • 10M. KireevM
  • 49M. Van HeldenM
  • 40A. OuahabiM
  • 11B. BafdiliM
  • 27K. VanrafelghemF
  • 16S. AyodeleF
Coach: Frederic Vanderbiest

Form going into Charleroi vs KV Mechelen

Charleroi

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Lommel United16 August 2026
  • W3-1OH Leuven9 August 2026

KV Mechelen

All competitions we cover

  • D3-3Standard Liege16 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Gent9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Charleroi119022613+1327
11KV Mechelen113351320-712

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Charleroi vs KV Mechelen

  • 7 December 2025KV Mechelen 1–0 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
  • 4 December 2025Charleroi 2–0 KV MechelenCup
  • 28 September 2025Charleroi 0–2 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
  • 18 May 2025KV Mechelen 1–1 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
  • 19 April 2025Charleroi 3–0 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: Charleroi and KV Mechelen

Charleroi

GoalsAssists

  • A. Scheidler62
  • F. Situmona Mbemba53

KV Mechelen

No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Charleroi beat KV Mechelen 2–0. The model had made a win for Charleroi its most likely outcome, at 55%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: A. Ousou 35' for Charleroi, K. Van Den Kerkhof 77' for Charleroi. On expected goals it finished 1.44–0.23.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.