Everton
vs
Crystal Palace
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 49% Everton, 22% draw, 29% Crystal Palace — fair odds of 2.04, 4.55 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Everton 2.04, Crystal Palace 1.55.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Everton vs Crystal Palace
- 10 May 2026Crystal Palace 2–2 EvertonPremier League
- 5 October 2025Everton 2–1 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 15 February 2025Crystal Palace 1–2 EvertonPremier League
- 28 September 2024Everton 2–1 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 19 February 2024Everton 1–1 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 17 January 2024Everton 1–0 Crystal PalaceFA Cup
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Everton carry a model rating of 6.89 against 6.9 for Crystal Palace. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.04 goals for Everton and 1.55 for Crystal Palace. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Everton rate 1.05 in attack and 0.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Crystal Palace rate 1.14 and 1.03.
That points to 70% for over two and a half goals and 69% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Everton the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Everton against 1.55 for Crystal Palace. Everton's attack/defence rating is 1.05/0.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.14/1.03 for Crystal Palace.