Ipswich
vs
Sunderland
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 69% Ipswich, 17% draw, 14% Sunderland — fair odds of 1.45, 5.88 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Ipswich 2.68, Sunderland 1.18.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Ipswich vs Sunderland
- 13 January 2024Ipswich 2–1 SunderlandChampionship
- 6 August 2023Sunderland 1–2 IpswichChampionship
- 18 December 2021Ipswich 1–1 SunderlandLeague One
- 20 November 2021Sunderland 2–0 IpswichLeague One
- 26 January 2021Ipswich 0–1 SunderlandLeague One
- 3 November 2020Sunderland 2–1 IpswichLeague One
The two sides
Ipswich carry a model rating of 7.1 against 6.82 for Sunderland. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.68 goals for Ipswich and 1.18 for Sunderland. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ipswich rate 1.54 in attack and 0.98 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sunderland rate 0.86 and 0.92.
That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 2-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ipswich the highest probability at 69%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.68 expected goals for Ipswich against 1.18 for Sunderland. Ipswich's attack/defence rating is 1.54/0.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/0.92 for Sunderland.