Brentford
vs
Tottenham
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 33% Brentford, 28% draw, 39% Tottenham — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Brentford 1.24, Tottenham 1.38.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Brentford vs Tottenham
- 1 January 2026Brentford 0–0 TottenhamPremier League
- 6 December 2025Tottenham 2–0 BrentfordPremier League
- 2 February 2025Brentford 0–2 TottenhamPremier League
- 21 September 2024Tottenham 3–1 BrentfordPremier League
- 31 January 2024Tottenham 3–2 BrentfordPremier League
- 13 August 2023Brentford 2–2 TottenhamPremier League
The two sides
Brentford carry a model rating of 6.84 against 7.08 for Tottenham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.24 goals for Brentford and 1.38 for Tottenham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Brentford rate 1.06 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Tottenham rate 0.91 and 0.62.
That points to 49% for over two and a half goals and 54% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tottenham the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Brentford against 1.38 for Tottenham. Brentford's attack/defence rating is 1.06/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/0.62 for Tottenham.