Norwich vs Birmingham Championship prediction & result
Final score: Norwich 2-1 Birmingham.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Norwich, 28% draw, 30% Birmingham — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Norwich at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Norwich vs Birmingham
Line-ups
- 1V. KovačevićG
- 3J. StaceyD
- 15Ruairi McConvilleD
- 33J. CórdobaD
- 14B. ChriseneD
- 23K. McLeanM
- 7P. MattssonM
- 11A. BrooksM
- 19P. DialloM
- 29O. SchwartauM
- 30M. KvistgaardenF
- 17A. CrnacF
- 6H. DarlingD
- 35K. FisherD
- 32D. GrimshawG
- 25P. MaghomaM
- 24J. MakamaF
- 49A. MusabaF
- 16Jacob WrightM
- 13D. YongwaD
- 1J. BeadleG
- 26B. Osayi-SamuelD
- 5P. NeumannD
- 4C. KlarerD
- 25K. LundD
- 24T. IwataM
- 8Paik Seung-HoM
- 7Carlos VicenteM
- 28J. StansfieldM
- 17L. MillarM
- 9A. PriskeF
- 23D. FryD
- 27K. FujimotoM
- 2E. LairdD
- 30Bradley MayoG
- 32L. VázquezF
- 33M. DuckschF
- 20A. CochraneD
- 3L. BuchananD
- 21R. AllsopG
Form going into Norwich vs Birmingham
Norwich
- W3-1away to Sheffield Utd5 September 2026
Birmingham
- D2-2Wolves6 September 2026
- D1-1Southampton1 September 2026
- W2-1away to Wrexham28 August 2026
- D2-2Bristol City22 August 2026
- D0-0away to Sheffield Utd15 August 2026
What these results say
- Birmingham went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Birmingham failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Birmingham scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 9 |
| 3 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Norwich vs Birmingham
- 9 September 2026Norwich 2–1 BirminghamChampionship
- 21 February 2026Norwich 1–2 BirminghamChampionship
- 22 November 2025Birmingham 4–1 NorwichChampionship
- 4 May 2024Birmingham 1–0 NorwichChampionship
- 30 September 2023Norwich 2–0 BirminghamChampionship
- 21 February 2023Norwich 3–1 BirminghamChampionship
Leading scorers: Norwich and Birmingham
Norwich
GoalsAssists
- M. Touré50
Birmingham
GoalsAssists
- A. Priske41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.