Wrexham
vs
Burnley
Championship prediction
The model makes it 53% Wrexham, 24% draw, 23% Burnley — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Wrexham 1.88, Burnley 1.18.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Wrexham
- D1-1Watford22 August 2026
- D1-1away to Cardiff17 August 2026
Burnley
- L1-3away to West Brom23 August 2026
- D2-2West Ham16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Wrexham | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 18 | Burnley | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Wrexham carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.67 for Burnley. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Wrexham D-D; Burnley D-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.88 goals for Wrexham and 1.18 for Burnley. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wrexham rate 0.88 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Burnley rate 0.78 and 1.13.
That points to 59% for over two and a half goals and 59% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 595 correct results out of 1255 settled predictions (47%), with 114 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wrexham the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Wrexham against 1.18 for Burnley. Wrexham's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.13 for Burnley.