Wrexham vs Burnley Championship prediction & result
Final score: Wrexham 1-1 Burnley.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Wrexham, 29% draw, 36% Burnley — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Burnley at 36% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Wrexham vs Burnley
Line-ups
- 22A. PattersonG
- 4M. CleworthD
- 5D. HyamD
- 2C. DoyleD
- 12I. KaboréM
- 37M. JamesM
- 8B. WhitemanM
- 3J. EkomiéM
- 10J. WindassM
- 27L. O'BrienM
- 19K. MooreF
- 6J. WorrallD
- 21D. WardG
- 26Z. VynerD
- 28S. SmithF
- 20O. RathboneM
- 17C. O'HareM
- 47R. LongmanM
- 30Daniel Edward Peter ImrayD
- 33N. BroadheadF
- 1M. WeißG
- 22O. SonneD
- 2K. WalkerD
- 44IgorD
- 14C. RobertsD
- 8U. RaghouberM
- 3Max AlleyneM
- 21A. RamseyM
- 29J. LaurentM
- 19L. RamazaniM
- 11Z. AmdouniF
- 17A. HountondjiF
- 27A. BrojaF
- 30L. CastellF
- 5R. HatateM
- 18H. EkdalD
- 37G. CoudertG
- 15A. AhmedhodžićD
- 23Lucas PiresD
- 47E. ClarkM
Form going into Wrexham vs Burnley
Wrexham
- D0-0away to Swansea5 September 2026
- W3-0away to Millwall2 September 2026
- L1-2Birmingham28 August 2026
- D1-1Watford22 August 2026
- D1-1away to Cardiff17 August 2026
Burnley
- L1-2Bristol City5 September 2026
- D1-1Middlesbrough2 September 2026
- L1-4away to Norwich29 August 2026
- L1-3away to West Brom23 August 2026
- D2-2West Ham16 August 2026
What these results say
- Wrexham failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wrexham scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Burnley did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Burnley scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Burnley conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 11 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Wrexham vs Burnley
- 8 September 2026Wrexham 0–1 BurnleyChampionship
Leading scorers: Wrexham and Burnley
Wrexham
GoalsAssists
- K. Moore41
Burnley
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.