Mamelodi Sundowns vs Siwelele Premier Soccer League prediction & result
Final score: Mamelodi Sundowns 3-0 Siwelele.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Mamelodi Sundowns, 24% draw, 22% Siwelele — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All South African Premier Soccer League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mamelodi Sundowns at 54% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mamelodi Sundowns vs Siwelele
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30R. WilliamsG
- 28Z. MdunyelwaD
- 42M. KhozaD
- 3K. NdamaneD
- 6A. ModibaD
- 21S. MkhuliseM
- 4T. MokoenaM
- 43K. LethlakuM
- 33C. MailulaM
- 29A. van WykM
- 12B. LeonF
- 31R. GossG
- 40M. MvalaD
- 27T. MorenaD
- 23F. BasadienD
- 11M. AllendeM
- 38S. Ndlovu
- 18T. ZwaneM
- 13I. RaynersF
- 17T. MatthewsF
- 50W. MthombeniG
- 2Y. MfoloziD
- 4T. SesaneD
- 33S. NdebeleD
- 29A. BalitiD
- 8R. MokhuoaneM
- 26S. KobediM
- 7N. MokhachaneM
- 6S. RasebotjaM
- 10M. PuleM
- 11C. SaileF
- 30S. XuluG
- 80N. NgcoboD
- 21B. SabreM
- 36T. R. LetshediM
- 16T. PotsaneM
- 19H. IssahF
- 12M. MazibukoM
- 17S. JezaF
- 28M. N'GuessanF
Form going into Mamelodi Sundowns vs Siwelele
Mamelodi Sundowns
- W2-1away to Golden Arrows6 September 2026
- W2-0Milford FC2 September 2026
Siwelele
- L2-3away to Kaizer Chiefs6 September 2026
- D1-1Chippa United25 August 2026
- L0-2away to Amazulu15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 23 |
| 14 | Siwelele | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Mamelodi Sundowns and Siwelele
Mamelodi Sundowns
GoalsAssists
- B. León31
- T. Matthews23
- C. Mailula20
Siwelele
No player in Premier Soccer League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.