Moreirense
vs
Benfica
Primeira Liga prediction
The model makes it 9% Moreirense, 14% draw, 77% Benfica — fair odds of 11.11, 7.14 and 1.30. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-3 (8%).
Expected goals: Moreirense 1.06, Benfica 3.09.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Moreirense
- L0-4away to Arouca16 August 2026
- D2-2SC Braga9 August 2026
Benfica
- W7-0away to Casa Pia17 August 2026
- D2-2Academico Viseu9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Moreirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 |
| 7 | Benfica | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Moreirense vs Benfica
- 25 April 2026Benfica 4–1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 14 December 2025Moreirense 0–4 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 8 February 2025Benfica 3–2 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 30 August 2024Moreirense 1–1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 14 April 2024Benfica 3–0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 3 December 2023Moreirense 0–0 BenficaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers
Moreirense
No league goals recorded yet.
Benfica
- V. Pavlidis4 goals1 assists
- G. Prestianni2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Moreirense carry a model rating of 6.4 against 7.1 for Benfica. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Moreirense D-L; Benfica D-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.06 goals for Moreirense and 3.09 for Benfica. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Moreirense rate 0.55 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Benfica rate 1.59 and 1.02.
That points to 78% for over two and a half goals and 63% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-3 (8%), 1-2 (8%), 0-3 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 601 correct results out of 1266 settled predictions (47%), with 115 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Benfica the highest probability at 77%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Moreirense against 3.09 for Benfica. Moreirense's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.59/1.02 for Benfica.