Charlton
vs
QPR
Championship prediction
The model makes it 47% Charlton, 27% draw, 26% QPR — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Charlton 1.56, QPR 1.10.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Charlton
- W2-1away to West Ham22 August 2026
- W2-1Derby15 August 2026
QPR
- D0-0Bolton22 August 2026
- W3-1away to Portsmouth15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Charlton | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 5 | QPR | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Charlton vs QPR
- 6 February 2026Charlton 0–0 QPRChampionship
- 30 August 2025QPR 3–1 CharltonChampionship
- 9 August 2022Charlton 1–1 QPRLeague Cup
- 27 June 2020Charlton 1–0 QPRChampionship
- 21 December 2019QPR 2–2 CharltonChampionship
- 9 April 2016QPR 2–1 CharltonChampionship
Leading scorers
Charlton
- Tyreece Anthony Tupac Shakur Campbell2 goals
- L. Jones2 goals
QPR
- I. Chair2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Charlton carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.48 for QPR. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Charlton W-W; QPR W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Charlton and 1.10 for QPR. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Charlton rate 0.56 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; QPR rate 0.70 and 1.47.
That points to 49% for over two and a half goals and 53% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 601 correct results out of 1266 settled predictions (47%), with 115 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Charlton the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Charlton against 1.1 for QPR. Charlton's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.47 for QPR.