Deportivo Cali
vs
Alianza Valledupar
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Deportivo Cali 1–0 Alianza Valledupar
The model makes it 54% Deportivo Cali, 28% draw, 18% Alianza Valledupar — fair odds of 1.85, 3.57 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17%).
Expected goals: Deportivo Cali 1.75, Alianza Valledupar 0.56.
Both teams to score: 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo Cali at 54% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 673 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar
Deportivo Cali
- W1-0away to Santa Fe23 September 2026
- W3-0Cucuta19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Once Caldas13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Millonarios11 September 2026
- D1-1Bucaramanga31 August 2026
Alianza Valledupar
- L1-4Santa Fe19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Chico16 September 2026
- W1-0Junior13 September 2026
- L0-3away to America de Cali3 September 2026
- L1-5Atletico Nacional30 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Deportivo Cali | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 18 |
| 16 | Alianza Valledupar | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar
- 21 May 2026Deportivo Cali 1–0 Alianza ValleduparCopa Colombia
- 22 March 2026Alianza Valledupar 1–0 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
- 28 October 2025Deportivo Cali 0–1 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
- 11 May 2025Alianza Valledupar 2–0 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
- 22 July 2024Deportivo Cali 1–0 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
- 27 January 2024Alianza Valledupar 3–3 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
Leading scorers: Deportivo Cali and Alianza Valledupar
Deportivo Cali
- S. Rodríguez10 goals2 assists
Alianza Valledupar
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Deportivo Cali carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.23 for Alianza Valledupar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for Deportivo Cali and 0.56 for Alianza Valledupar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportivo Cali rate 0.67 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Alianza Valledupar rate 0.52 and 1.80.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Deportivo Cali a 4.2% chance of the title and Alianza Valledupar 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo Cali the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Deportivo Cali against 0.56 for Alianza Valledupar. Deportivo Cali's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.8 for Alianza Valledupar.