Juventus
vs
Parma
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 77% Juventus, 15% draw, 8% Parma — fair odds of 1.30, 6.67 and 12.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Juventus 2.63, Parma 0.77.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Juventus vs Parma
- 1 February 2026Parma 1–4 JuventusSerie A
- 24 August 2025Juventus 2–0 ParmaSerie A
- 23 April 2025Parma 1–0 JuventusSerie A
- 30 October 2024Juventus 2–2 ParmaSerie A
- 21 April 2021Juventus 3–1 ParmaSerie A
- 19 December 2020Parma 0–4 JuventusSerie A
The two sides
Juventus carry a model rating of 7.19 against 6.72 for Parma. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.63 goals for Juventus and 0.77 for Parma. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Juventus rate 1.30 in attack and 0.66 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Parma rate 0.83 and 1.07.
That points to 66% for over two and a half goals and 50% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (12%), 3-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Juventus the highest probability at 77%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.63 expected goals for Juventus against 0.77 for Parma. Juventus's attack/defence rating is 1.3/0.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.07 for Parma.