31 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNL prediction & result

Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
Full time2 – 0

Final score: HNK Hajduk Split 2-0 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% HNK Hajduk Split, 26% draw, 24% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts HNK Hajduk Split at 50% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

HNK Hajduk Split99%Draw1%NK Lokomotiva Zagreb0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Segoassist: S. Hrgovic
16'
21'
Pavle Smiljanić
46'
🔁J. Vasiljout: M. Lorber
46'
🔁P. Smiljanicout: I. Katic
46'
🔁D. Thaqiout: Kayke
53'
Marcel Lorber
⚽M. Soticekassist: A. Pajaziti
55'
🔁A. Sutaloout: A. Sanyang
59'
67'
🔁F. Karacicout: D. Reic
🔁M. Acapandieout: D. Hadzikadunic
73'
🔁M. Soticekout: A. Huram
73'
78'
Marcel Lorber
78'
Marcel Lorber
🔁D. de Almeidaout: E. Brruti
81'
🔁M. Segoout: M. Livaja
81'
Adrion Pajaziti
82'
82'
🔁D. Vukovicout: D. Morina
•Etnik Brruti
90'

Match stats — HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

65%Possession35%
28Shots7
13On target2
7Corners1
2.57xG0.42

Goals against chances

HNK Hajduk Split2 from 2.57 xGless than the chances were worth
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb0 from 0.42 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

HNK Hajduk Split 4-2-3-1
  • 33T. SilicG
  • 22M. AcapandieD
  • 15D. MaresicD
  • 14R. RaciD
  • 32S. HrgovicD
  • 20A. del MoralM
  • 4A. PajazitiM
  • 16A. SutaloM
  • 9D. de AlmeidaM
  • 23M. SoticekM
  • 11M. SegoF
Substitutes
  • 44D. StipicaG
  • 99D. FesyukG
  • 17D. MelnjakD
  • 6D. HadzikadunicD
  • 36M. SkelinD
  • 38L. HodakD
  • 3R. GabricD
  • 26A. HuramM
  • 19E. BrrutiM
Coach: Gonzalo Garcia
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 4-2-3-1
  • 12J. PosavecG
  • 13F. KaracicD
  • 4A. TriantafyllouD
  • 21T. KralevskiD
  • 20K. CabrajicD
  • 25P. SmiljanicM
  • 10M. SuboticM
  • 15D. ThaqiM
  • 29J. VasiljM
  • 7D. VukovicM
  • 28N. DjurkovicF
Substitutes
  • 32L. SavatovicG
  • 2J. GurlicaM
  • 27N. GodecD
  • 14M. LorberM
  • 6F. FetaiM
  • 30D. ReicM
  • 26D. Morina
  • 8I. KaticM
  • 16KaykeF
Coach: Nikica Jelavic

Form going into HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

HNK Hajduk Split

  • W3-2away to Raków Częstochowa27 August 2026
  • W4-0NK Osijek23 August 2026
  • D2-2Raków Częstochowa20 August 2026
  • W2-1away to HNK Gorica16 August 2026
  • W4-0FK Zalgiris Vilnius13 August 2026

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

  • L1-4away to Rudes21 August 2026
  • L0-1away to NK Osijek15 August 2026
  • W3-1HNK Gorica8 August 2026
  • W3-2away to Istra 19611 August 2026

What these results say

  • HNK Hajduk Split went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • HNK Hajduk Split scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for HNK Hajduk Split had three goals or more.
  • NK Lokomotiva Zagreb conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • NK Lokomotiva Zagreb scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1HNK Hajduk Split9612189+919
8NK Lokomotiva Zagreb92161117-67

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

  • 16 May 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–1 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
  • 15 March 2026HNK Hajduk Split 2–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • 13 December 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–3 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
  • 27 September 2025HNK Hajduk Split 2–0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • 13 April 2025HNK Hajduk Split 1–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • 2 February 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3–2 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL

Leading scorers: HNK Hajduk Split and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

HNK Hajduk Split

GoalsAssists

  • M. Šego41
  • M. Livaja30
  • A. Sanyang21

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

GoalsAssists

  • D. Vuković32

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.