HNK Hajduk Split
vs
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
HNL prediction
The model makes it 73% HNK Hajduk Split, 15% draw, 12% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb — fair odds of 1.37, 6.67 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).
Expected goals: HNK Hajduk Split 3.11, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.30.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 81%, under 2.5: 19%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
HNK Hajduk Split
- W4-0NK Osijek23 August 2026
- W2-1away to HNK Gorica16 August 2026
- D2-2Istra 19619 August 2026
- L1-2away to NK Varazdin2 August 2026
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- L1-4away to Rudes21 August 2026
- L0-1away to NK Osijek15 August 2026
- W3-1HNK Gorica8 August 2026
- W3-2away to Istra 19611 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | HNK Hajduk Split | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 7 |
| 6 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- 16 May 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–1 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 15 March 2026HNK Hajduk Split 2–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 13 December 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–3 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 27 September 2025HNK Hajduk Split 2–0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 13 April 2025HNK Hajduk Split 1–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 2 February 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3–2 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
Leading scorers
HNK Hajduk Split
- M. Livaja3 goals
- R. Pukštas2 goals1 assists
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- D. Vuković2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
HNK Hajduk Split carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.22 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): HNK Hajduk Split L-D-W-W; NK Lokomotiva Zagreb W-W-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.11 goals for HNK Hajduk Split and 1.30 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
HNK Hajduk Split rate 0.79 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NK Lokomotiva Zagreb rate 0.58 and 2.08.
That points to 81% for over two and a half goals and 70% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%), 4-1 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 588 correct results out of 1235 settled predictions (48%), with 111 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HNK Hajduk Split the highest probability at 73%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.11 expected goals for HNK Hajduk Split against 1.3 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. HNK Hajduk Split's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/2.08 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.