HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka HNL prediction & result
Final score: HNK Gorica 0-0 HNK Rijeka.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% HNK Gorica, 30% draw, 35% HNK Rijeka — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Croatian HNL predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts HNK Gorica at 35% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. JosipovicG
- 2F. BrautD
- 45S. PericD
- 15D. StevanovicD
- 34I. CvijanovicD
- 36A. KaveljM
- 6T. LacouxM
- 8J. PranjicM
- 24D. PavicicM
- 25B. BogojevicM
- 9P. MijicF
- 30D. ZarkovG
- 71D. MatijasG
- 32J. FilipovicD
- 4K. CustovicM
- 7O. BakicM
- 66J. FriganM
- 14S. KucisM
- 99M. GashiF
- 18B. KardumF
- 13I. VekicG
- 22A. OrecD
- 45A. MajstorovicD
- 51A. HusicD
- 34M. DevetakD
- 26T. DantasM
- 6B. PavicM
- 19S. VignatoM
- 10T. FrukM
- 4N. JankovicM
- 18D. Adu AdjeiF
- 99A. TodorovicG
- 1V. KovacG
- 23J. LasickasD
- 3M. ZivkovicD
- 91N. BodeticD
- 14A. GojakM
- 8I. CubelicM
- 5A. BarcoM
- 21J. PuljicF
Form going into HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka
HNK Gorica
- L0-2away to NK Slaven Belupo22 August 2026
- L1-2HNK Hajduk Split16 August 2026
- L1-3away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb8 August 2026
- L0-2NK Osijek1 August 2026
HNK Rijeka
- L1-4FC Midtjylland27 August 2026
- W3-2Istra 196123 August 2026
- L0-2away to FC Midtjylland20 August 2026
- L0-2away to NK Varazdin16 August 2026
- D1-1away to Ilves13 August 2026
What these results say
- HNK Gorica did not win any of these 4 matches.
- HNK Gorica conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- HNK Rijeka conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- HNK Rijeka failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka
- 23 May 2026HNK Rijeka 2–0 HNK GoricaHNL
- 22 March 2026HNK Gorica 4–0 HNK RijekaHNL
- 21 December 2025HNK Rijeka 1–0 HNK GoricaHNL
- 5 October 2025HNK Gorica 1–3 HNK RijekaHNL
- 4 May 2025HNK Rijeka 2–1 HNK GoricaHNL
- 1 March 2025HNK Gorica 0–0 HNK RijekaHNL
Leading scorers: HNK Gorica and HNK Rijeka
HNK Gorica
GoalsAssists
- B. Bogojević40
HNK Rijeka
GoalsAssists
- D. Adu-Adjei43
- Tiago Dantas32
- T. Fruk23
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.