11 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

FC Midtjylland vs FC Copenhagen Superliga prediction & result

MCH Arena, Herning
Referee: Jacob Karlsen
Full time2 – 1

Final score: FC Midtjylland 2-1 FC Copenhagen.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% FC Midtjylland, 24% draw, 33% FC Copenhagen — fair odds of 2.33, 4.17 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Midtjylland at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Midtjylland95%Draw5%FC Copenhagen0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Friday Etimassist: Philip Billing
12'
45+2'
Marcos López
🔁David Martínezout: Sofus Johannesen
45'
49'
•Thomas Delaney
49'
⚽Mohamed Elyounoussi (pen)
🔁Kjell-Arik Wätjenout: Hong Hyun-Seok
54'
⚽Denil Castilloassist: Friday Etim
62'
64'
Thomas Delaney
74'
🔁Thomas Delaneyout: Thapelo Maseko
74'
🔁Andreas Corneliusout: Viktor Dadason
🔁Stanley Iheanachoout: Julius Emefile
78'
🔁Denil Castilloout: Cho Gue-sung
78'
81'
🔁Marcos Lópezout: Birger Meling
88'
🔁Mohamed Elyounoussiout: Geovanni Vianney Ndjee
88'
🔁Alex Králout: Marvin Nasnas
🔁Friday Etimout: Mileta Rajovic
90'
90+1'
William Clem
Andreas Maxsø
90+2'
90+5'
Bo Svensson

Match stats — FC Midtjylland vs FC Copenhagen

35%Possession65%
8Shots14
3On target1
4Corners2
1.62xG1.67

Goals against chances

FC Midtjylland2 from 1.62 xGabout what the chances were worth
FC Copenhagen1 from 1.67 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Midtjylland 3-4-1-2
  • 25N. BakkerG
  • 4O. DiaoD
  • 2A. MaxsøD
  • 22M. BechD
  • 98D. MartínezM
  • 8P. BillingM
  • 19P. BravoM
  • 29K. WätjenM
  • 21D. CastilloM
  • 90F. EtimF
  • 18S. IheanachoF
Substitutes
  • 15B. Dje Bi DjeD
  • 10Cho Gue-SungF
  • 30O. EjeheriG
  • 20Hong Hyun-SeokM
  • 27S. JohannesenM
  • 9M. RajovićF
  • 17M. UhreF
  • 39Joseph Avwerosuoghene OkuaghareM
  • 38J. EmefileM
Coach: M. Tullberg
FC Copenhagen 4-2-3-1
  • 1D. RamajG
  • 2F. BeijmoD
  • 4A. SørensenD
  • 36W. ClemD
  • 15M. LópezD
  • 27T. DelaneyM
  • 6A. MarkgráfM
  • 33A. KrálM
  • 10M. ElyounoussiM
  • 16RobertM
  • 14A. CorneliusF
Substitutes
  • 34M. NasnasM
  • 28Hunor Vajk NémethM
  • 31R. RúnarssonG
  • 20J. SuzukiD
  • 44G. VianneyF
  • 24B. MelingD
  • 12T. MasekoF
  • 13R. HuescasD
  • 39V. DadasonF
Coach: B. Svensson

Form going into FC Midtjylland vs FC Copenhagen

FC Midtjylland

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Odense19 September 2026
  • W4-1Brondby14 September 2026
  • D2-2FC Nordsjaelland7 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Aarhus2 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Silkeborg30 August 2026

FC Copenhagen

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Brondby20 September 2026
  • W2-0AC Horsens11 September 2026
  • W5-0away to Odense6 September 2026
  • W2-0FC Nordsjaelland3 September 2026
  • W3-1Sonderjyske31 August 2026

What these results say

  • FC Midtjylland went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • FC Midtjylland scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC Midtjylland conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC Copenhagen won every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC Copenhagen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC Copenhagen kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Superliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2FC Midtjylland149502917+1232
1FC Copenhagen1410222912+1732

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Midtjylland vs FC Copenhagen

  • 14 May 2026FC Copenhagen 0–1 FC MidtjyllandDBU Pokalen
  • 8 February 2026FC Midtjylland 2–1 FC CopenhagenSuperliga
  • 5 October 2025FC Copenhagen 1–1 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga
  • 11 May 2025FC Copenhagen 1–1 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga
  • 17 April 2025FC Midtjylland 4–2 FC CopenhagenSuperliga

The full FC Midtjylland vs FC Copenhagen record →

Leading scorers: FC Midtjylland and FC Copenhagen

FC Midtjylland

GoalsAssists

  • F. Etim63

FC Copenhagen

GoalsAssists

  • M. Elyounoussi72
  • B. Meling51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Midtjylland beat FC Copenhagen 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for FC Midtjylland at 43%. The goals: Friday Etim 12' for FC Midtjylland, Mohamed Elyounoussi (penalty) 49' for FC Copenhagen, Denil Castillo 62' for FC Midtjylland. On expected goals it finished 1.62–1.67.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Midtjylland a 26.6% chance to finish top of the regular season: 35.0% after a win, 22.9% after a draw, 13.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.0%, 8.4 points higher than before the match.

For FC Copenhagen the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 69.0% going in: 82.4% after a win, 71.1% after a draw, 60.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 60.4%, 8.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Superliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Midtjylland v FC Copenhagen has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 40% / 27% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 43% / 24% / 33%: the biggest move is FC Midtjylland's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. FC Midtjylland win43%▲ +3
  2. Draw24%▼ −3
  3. FC Copenhagen win33%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.