Newcastle vs Liverpool Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Newcastle 2-2 Liverpool.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Newcastle, 23% draw, 29% Liverpool — fair odds of 2.08, 4.35 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Newcastle at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Newcastle vs Liverpool
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 21L. HornicekG
- 37A. DedicD
- 12M. ThiawD
- 4S. BotmanD
- 3L. HallD
- 14S. SteurM
- 67L. MileyM
- 19A. ElangaM
- 9Y. WissaM
- 11H. BarnesM
- 10W. OsulaF
- 24E. JaouenG
- 51L. ShaharD
- 5F. ScharD
- 28J. WillockM
- 41J. RamseyM
- 8A. BambaM
- 17B. ToureF
- 23J. MurphyM
- 27N. WoltemadeF
- 1AlissonG
- 30J. FrimpongD
- 5J. JacquetD
- 4V. van DijkD
- 6M. KerkezD
- 8D. SzoboszlaiM
- 38R. GravenberchM
- 73R. NgumohaM
- 7F. WirtzM
- 18C. GakpoM
- 9A. IsakF
- 25G. MamardashviliG
- 21K. TsimikasD
- 33R. AraujoD
- 10A. Mac AllisterM
- 3W. EndoM
- 53J. McConnellM
- 42T. NyoniM
- 67L. KoumasF
- 23V. MunozF
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Newcastle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 12 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Newcastle vs Liverpool
- 31 January 2026Liverpool 4–1 NewcastlePremier League
- 25 August 2025Newcastle 2–3 LiverpoolPremier League
- 16 March 2025Liverpool 1–2 NewcastleLeague Cup
- 26 February 2025Liverpool 2–0 NewcastlePremier League
- 4 December 2024Newcastle 3–3 LiverpoolPremier League
Leading scorers: Newcastle and Liverpool
Newcastle
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Liverpool
GoalsAssists
- A. Isak70
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Newcastle and Liverpool drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Newcastle at 48% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: A. Elanga 5' for Newcastle, C. Gakpo 55' for Liverpool, J. Willock 57' for Newcastle, D. Szoboszlai (penalty) 90' for Liverpool. On expected goals it finished 1.42–2.23.