Newcastle
vs
Liverpool
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 52% Newcastle, 22% draw, 26% Liverpool — fair odds of 1.92, 4.55 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Newcastle 2.06, Liverpool 1.39.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Newcastle vs Liverpool
- 31 January 2026Liverpool 4–1 NewcastlePremier League
- 25 August 2025Newcastle 2–3 LiverpoolPremier League
- 16 March 2025Liverpool 1–2 NewcastleLeague Cup
- 26 February 2025Liverpool 2–0 NewcastlePremier League
- 4 December 2024Newcastle 3–3 LiverpoolPremier League
- 1 January 2024Liverpool 4–2 NewcastlePremier League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Newcastle carry a model rating of 7.01 against 6.96 for Liverpool. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.06 goals for Newcastle and 1.39 for Liverpool. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Newcastle rate 1.28 in attack and 0.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Liverpool rate 1.06 and 0.85.
That points to 67% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Newcastle the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Newcastle against 1.39 for Liverpool. Newcastle's attack/defence rating is 1.28/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.06/0.85 for Liverpool.