Brighton vs Aston Villa Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Brighton 4-0 Aston Villa.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Brighton, 21% draw, 24% Aston Villa — fair odds of 1.82, 4.76 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Brighton at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Brighton vs Aston Villa
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Bart VerbruggenG
- 27Mats WiefferD
- 44Luka VuškovićD
- 5Lewis DunkD
- 21Olivier BoscagliD
- 13Pascal GroßM
- 26Yasin AyariM
- 25Diego GómezM
- 8Jack HinshelwoodM
- 29Maxim De CuyperM
- 10Georginio RutterF
- 20CostinhaD
- 19Charalampos KostoulasF
- 15Ibrahim OsmanF
- 36Zadok YohannaF
- 35Malick YalcouyéM
- 23Jason SteeleG
- 4Pascal StruijkD
- 30Michael SvobodaD
- 12Promise DavidF
- 40Marco BizotG
- 2Matty CashD
- 3Victor LindelöfD
- 14Pau TorresD
- 22Ian MaatsenD
- 8Boubacar KamaraM
- 35João GomesM
- 7John McGinnM
- 6Ross BarkleyM
- 53George HemmingsM
- 10Emiliano BuendíaF
- 5Tyrone MingsD
- 26Lamare BogardeM
- 13Matteo RuggeriD
- 47AlyssonF
- 17Alejandro GarnachoF
- 1Zion SuzukiG
- 45Triston RoweD
- 49Bradley BurrowesF
- 74Luka LynchF
Form going into Brighton vs Aston Villa
Brighton
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Tromso20 August 2026
Aston Villa
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Brighton | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 7 | +19 | 22 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Brighton vs Aston Villa
- 11 February 2026Aston Villa 1–0 BrightonPremier League
- 3 December 2025Brighton 3–4 Aston VillaPremier League
- 2 April 2025Brighton 0–3 Aston VillaPremier League
- 30 December 2024Aston Villa 2–2 BrightonPremier League
- 5 May 2024Brighton 1–0 Aston VillaPremier League
Leading scorers: Brighton and Aston Villa
Brighton
GoalsAssists
- P. Groß44
- C. Kostoulas32
Aston Villa
GoalsAssists
- N. Jackson61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Brighton beat Aston Villa 4–0. The model had made a win for Brighton its most likely outcome, at 55%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: V. Lindelof (own goal) 8' for Brighton, M. De Cuyper 18' for Brighton, J. Hinshelwood 30' for Brighton, J. Hinshelwood 31' for Brighton. Sent off: Joao Gomes (Aston Villa) 40'. On expected goals it finished 3.67–0.31.