Brighton
vs
Aston Villa
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 60% Brighton, 20% draw, 20% Aston Villa — fair odds of 1.67, 5.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Brighton 2.43, Aston Villa 1.37.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Brighton vs Aston Villa
- 11 February 2026Aston Villa 1–0 BrightonPremier League
- 3 December 2025Brighton 3–4 Aston VillaPremier League
- 2 April 2025Brighton 0–3 Aston VillaPremier League
- 30 December 2024Aston Villa 2–2 BrightonPremier League
- 5 May 2024Brighton 1–0 Aston VillaPremier League
- 30 September 2023Aston Villa 6–1 BrightonPremier League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Brighton carry a model rating of 7.05 against 6.92 for Aston Villa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.43 goals for Brighton and 1.37 for Aston Villa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Brighton rate 1.17 in attack and 0.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aston Villa rate 1.24 and 1.10.
That points to 73% for over two and a half goals and 68% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Brighton the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.43 expected goals for Brighton against 1.37 for Aston Villa. Brighton's attack/defence rating is 1.17/0.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.24/1.1 for Aston Villa.