Dinamo Makhachkala
vs
FC Krasnodar
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 33% Dinamo Makhachkala, 31% draw, 36% FC Krasnodar — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Dinamo Makhachkala 1.07, FC Krasnodar 1.12.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Dinamo Makhachkala
- L1-3away to Dynamo9 August 2026
- W2-1Lokomotiv1 August 2026
- W2-1away to Fakel25 July 2026
FC Krasnodar
- W3-2Fakel2 August 2026
- W3-1away to Rubin26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | FC Krasnodar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Dinamo Makhachkala
No league goals recorded yet.
FC Krasnodar
- N. Krivtsov3 goals
- Christian1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dinamo Makhachkala carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.62 for FC Krasnodar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Dinamo Makhachkala W-W-L; FC Krasnodar W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.07 goals for Dinamo Makhachkala and 1.12 for FC Krasnodar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dinamo Makhachkala rate 0.47 in attack and 1.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Krasnodar rate 0.76 and 1.20.
That points to 37% for over two and a half goals and 45% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (12%), 0-1 (12%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Krasnodar the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Dinamo Makhachkala against 1.12 for FC Krasnodar. Dinamo Makhachkala's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.2 for FC Krasnodar.