Manchester City
vs
Bournemouth
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 55% Manchester City, 21% draw, 24% Bournemouth — fair odds of 1.82, 4.76 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Manchester City 2.18, Bournemouth 1.42.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Manchester City vs Bournemouth
- 19 May 2026Bournemouth 1–1 Manchester CityPremier League
- 2 November 2025Manchester City 3–1 BournemouthPremier League
- 20 May 2025Manchester City 3–1 BournemouthPremier League
- 30 March 2025Bournemouth 1–2 Manchester CityFA Cup
- 2 November 2024Bournemouth 2–1 Manchester CityPremier League
- 24 February 2024Bournemouth 0–1 Manchester CityPremier League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Manchester City carry a model rating of 7.09 against 7.02 for Bournemouth. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.18 goals for Manchester City and 1.42 for Bournemouth. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Manchester City rate 1.37 in attack and 0.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bournemouth rate 1.19 and 0.84.
That points to 70% for over two and a half goals and 68% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Manchester City the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Manchester City against 1.42 for Bournemouth. Manchester City's attack/defence rating is 1.37/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.19/0.84 for Bournemouth.