Manchester City vs Bournemouth Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Manchester City 2-1 Bournemouth.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% Manchester City, 21% draw, 23% Bournemouth — fair odds of 1.79, 4.76 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Manchester City at 56%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Manchester City vs Bournemouth
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Gianluigi DonnarummaG
- 82Rico LewisD
- 45Abdukodir KhusanovD
- 3Rúben DiasD
- 24Joško GvardiolD
- 5Elliot AndersonM
- 6Marc GuéhiM
- 47Phil FodenM
- 33Nico O'ReillyM
- 42Antoine SemenyoM
- 9Erling HaalandF
- 27Matheus NunesM
- 8Mateo KovačićM
- 10Rayan CherkiM
- 18Jack GrealishM
- 28Gerónimo RulliG
- 21Rayan Aït-NouriD
- 22Vitor ReisD
- 14Nico GonzálezM
- 7Omar MarmoushF
- 1Đorđe PetrovićG
- 15Adam SmithD
- 5James HillD
- 14António SilvaD
- 3Adrien TruffertD
- 4Lewis CookM
- 8Alex ScottM
- 37RayanM
- 19Justin KluivertM
- 16Marcus TavernierM
- 9EvanilsonF
- 27Alex TóthM
- 12Tyler AdamsM
- 29Daniel JebbisonF
- 11Ben Gannon-DoakF
- 40Will DennisG
- 18Bafodé DiakitéD
- 24Juanlu SánchezM
- 7David BrooksM
- 30Álvaro RodriguezF
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Manchester City | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 21 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Manchester City vs Bournemouth
- 19 May 2026Bournemouth 1–1 Manchester CityPremier League
- 2 November 2025Manchester City 3–1 BournemouthPremier League
- 20 May 2025Manchester City 3–1 BournemouthPremier League
- 30 March 2025Bournemouth 1–2 Manchester CityFA Cup
- 2 November 2024Bournemouth 2–1 Manchester CityPremier League
Leading scorers: Manchester City and Bournemouth
Manchester City
GoalsAssists
- E. Haaland90
- R. Cherki52
Bournemouth
GoalsAssists
- Evanilson54
- M. Tavernier50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Manchester City beat Bournemouth 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Manchester City at 56%. The goals: M. Tavernier 26' for Bournemouth, M. Guehi 84' for Manchester City, J. Gvardiol 90+1' for Manchester City. On expected goals it finished 2.36–0.63.