Vanspor FK
vs
Sarıyer
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Vanspor FK 1–0 Sarıyer
The model makes it 37% Vanspor FK, 29% draw, 34% Sarıyer — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Vanspor FK 1.31, Sarıyer 1.22.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Vanspor FK and Sarıyer are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Vanspor FK are 18th on 7 points from 10 games; Sarıyer are 7th on 16 points from 11 games — 1. Lig.
- Vanspor FK have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Pendikspor.
- Sarıyer are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Sivasspor.
- Last 6 meetings: Vanspor FK 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 22 March 2026, ended Vanspor FK 0–0 Sarıyer.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Vanspor FK vs Sarıyer
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vanspor FK at 37% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Vanspor FK vs Sarıyer
Vanspor FK
- W2-1away to Pendikspor13 October 2026
- L0-2Bandırmaspor9 October 2026
- L0-3away to Antalyaspor20 September 2026
- D1-1Keçiörengücü12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Muğlaspor6 September 2026
Sarıyer
- D1-1away to Sivasspor17 October 2026
- L1-4Bodrum FK13 October 2026
- D1-1away to Ümraniyespor9 October 2026
- W2-1Boluspor19 September 2026
- D1-1Bandırmaspor11 September 2026
What these results say
- Vanspor FK conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Vanspor FK failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sarıyer scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sarıyer conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Sarıyer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Vanspor FK | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 7 |
| 7 | Sarıyer | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Vanspor FK
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 50% today
Sarıyer
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
From our 1. Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Vanspor FK vs Sarıyer
- 22 March 2026Vanspor FK 0–0 Sarıyer1. Lig
- 7 November 2025Sarıyer 2–1 Vanspor FK1. Lig
- 30 April 2023Sarıyer 2–3 Vanspor FK2. Lig
- 27 November 2022Vanspor FK 1–1 Sarıyer2. Lig
- 20 March 2022Sarıyer 1–1 Vanspor FK2. Lig
- 6 November 2021Vanspor FK 1–0 Sarıyer2. Lig
Leading scorers: Vanspor FK and Sarıyer
Vanspor FK
GoalsAssists
- J. Bardhi40
Sarıyer
GoalsAssists
- B. Kör41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Vanspor FK carry a model rating of 6.18 against 6.3 for Sarıyer. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Vanspor FK and 1.22 for Sarıyer. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vanspor FK rate 0.51 in attack and 1.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sarıyer rate 0.52 and 1.58.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sarıyer, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Vanspor FK a 0% chance of the title and Sarıyer 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vanspor FK the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Vanspor FK against 1.22 for Sarıyer. Vanspor FK's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.58 for Sarıyer.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Vanspor FK at home · Sarıyer away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Vanspor FK 10, Sarıyer 11.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Vanspor FK
- vs Sivasspor7 Nov · 1. Ligwin 35%
- at Bodrum FK23 Nov · 1. Ligwin 17%
- vs Bursaspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 22%
Sarıyer
- vs Iğdır FK6 Nov · 1. Ligwin 36%
- at Kayserispor21 Nov · 1. Ligwin 22%
- vs İstanbulspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 50%
- at Mardin 19696 Dec · 1. Ligwin 19%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.