New York Red Bulls
vs
Orlando City SC
The model makes it 58% New York Red Bulls, 21% draw, 21% Orlando City SC — fair odds of 1.72, 4.76 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: New York Red Bulls 2.24, Orlando City SC 1.32.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: New York Red Bulls vs Orlando City SC
- 22 February 2026Orlando City SC 1–2 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 12 April 2025Orlando City SC 0–0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 15 March 2025New York Red Bulls 2–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 1 December 2024Orlando City SC 0–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 1 June 2024New York Red Bulls 1–0 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 30 March 2024Orlando City SC 1–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives New York Red Bulls the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.24 expected goals for New York Red Bulls against 1.32 for Orlando City SC. New York Red Bulls's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.3 for Orlando City SC.