New York Red Bulls vs Orlando City SC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: New York Red Bulls 3-2 Orlando City SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% New York Red Bulls, 21% draw, 21% Orlando City SC — fair odds of 1.72, 4.76 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts New York Red Bulls at 58% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — New York Red Bulls vs Orlando City SC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 34Ethan HorvathG
- 12Dylan NealisD
- 2Justin CheD
- 14Julián BazánD
- 56Matthew Dos SantosD
- 48Ronald DonkorM
- 4Gustav BerggrenM
- 10Emil ForsbergM
- 7Cade CowellF
- 91Mijahir JimenezF
- 16Julian HallF
- 37Mohammed SofoF
- 3Jahkeele Marshall-RuttyD
- 26Tim ParkerD
- 17Cameron HarperF
- 39Nehuen BenedettiM
- 77John McCarthyG
- 6Robert VoloderD
- 80Nathan WorthM
- 33Roald MitchellF
- 71Maxime CrépeauG
- 24Griffin DorseyD
- 4David BrekaloD
- 6Robin JanssonD
- 3Adrián MarínD
- 77Iván AnguloM
- 8Braian OjedaM
- 20Eduard AtuestaM
- 11Tiago SouzaM
- 22Justin EllisF
- 7Antoine GriezmannF
- 44Bernardo RheinF
- 14Tyrese SpicerF
- 5Luis OtávioM
- 19Zakaria TaifiM
- 23Harvey SarajianF
- 12Javier OteroG
- 57Iago SilvaD
- 16Wilder CartagenaM
- 65Gustavo CaraballoM
Form going into New York Red Bulls vs Orlando City SC
New York Red Bulls
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Charlotte25 July 2026
- L1-3away to Philadelphia Union22 July 2026
Orlando City SC
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Nashville SC25 July 2026
- W4-0away to San Jose Earthquakes23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | New York Red Bulls | 32 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 43 | 59 | -16 | 39 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 62 | 74 | -12 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: New York Red Bulls vs Orlando City SC
- 22 February 2026Orlando City SC 1–2 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 12 April 2025Orlando City SC 0–0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 15 March 2025New York Red Bulls 2–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 1 December 2024Orlando City SC 0–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 1 June 2024New York Red Bulls 1–0 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: New York Red Bulls and Orlando City SC
New York Red Bulls
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.
Orlando City SC
GoalsAssists
- M. Ojeda164
- A. Griezmann147
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
New York Red Bulls beat Orlando City SC 3–2. The model had made a win for New York Red Bulls its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: M. Jimenez 23' for New York Red Bulls, E. Forsberg 43' for New York Red Bulls, T. Spicer 52' for Orlando City SC, M. Jimenez 60' for New York Red Bulls, G. Dorsey 63' for Orlando City SC. On expected goals it finished 3.60–3.20.