Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 18 · 1 August 2026, 23:30 UTC

New York Red Bulls vs Orlando City SC

Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison

The model makes it 58% New York Red Bulls, 21% draw, 21% Orlando City SC — fair odds of 1.72, 4.76 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).

Expected goals: New York Red Bulls 2.24, Orlando City SC 1.32.

Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

66%
Both teams to score
69%
Over 2.5 goals
31%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-1 9%1-1 9%2-0 7%

Head-to-head: New York Red Bulls vs Orlando City SC

  • 22 February 2026Orlando City SC 1–2 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
  • 12 April 2025Orlando City SC 0–0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
  • 15 March 2025New York Red Bulls 2–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
  • 1 December 2024Orlando City SC 0–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
  • 1 June 2024New York Red Bulls 1–0 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
  • 30 March 2024Orlando City SC 1–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives New York Red Bulls the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.24 expected goals for New York Red Bulls against 1.32 for Orlando City SC. New York Red Bulls's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.3 for Orlando City SC.