Coritiba vs Cruzeiro Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Coritiba 0-1 Cruzeiro.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Coritiba, 25% draw, 47% Cruzeiro — fair odds of 3.57, 4.00 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cruzeiro at 47% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Coritiba vs Cruzeiro
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Pedro MoriscoG
- 2TingaD
- 55Jacy MaranhãoD
- 23Tiago CóserD
- 26Bruno MeloD
- 21Thiago SantosM
- 19Sebastian GomezM
- 11Lucas RonierM
- 10JosuéM
- 77Breno LopesM
- 32Pedro RochaF
- 50Vitor Gonçalves TissiM
- 6Felipe JonatanD
- 99Rodrigo RodriguesF
- 17Brian OcampoF
- 20KenoF
- 22Pedro RangelG
- 4Rodrigo MoledoD
- 3MaiconD
- 44João Pedro ChermontD
- 81Otávio CostaG
- 12William FurtadoD
- 15Fabrício BrunoD
- 34Jonathan JesusD
- 27Gabriel RojasD
- 29Lucas RomeroM
- 8GersonM
- 99Keny ArroyoM
- 10Matheus PereiraM
- 38Felipe MoraisM
- 19Kaio JorgeF
- 70Kaique KenjiF
- 7Matheus HenriqueM
- 11MarquinhosF
- 9Bruno RodriguesF
- 25Lucas VillalbaD
- 51Vitor LamounierG
- 2Kauã MoraesD
- 43João MarceloD
- 57Rayan LelisF
Form going into Coritiba vs Cruzeiro
Coritiba
- D0-0away to RB Bragantino26 July 2026
- L1-3Palmeiras22 July 2026
Cruzeiro
- L0-1Botafogo26 July 2026
- W2-1away to Internacional23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Coritiba | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 38 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Coritiba vs Cruzeiro
- 31 July 2026Coritiba 0–1 CruzeiroSerie A
- 6 February 2026Cruzeiro 1–2 CoritibaSerie A
- 11 November 2023Coritiba 1–0 CruzeiroSerie A
- 16 July 2023Cruzeiro 0–0 CoritibaSerie A
- 9 October 2021Coritiba 0–3 CruzeiroSerie B
- 6 July 2021Cruzeiro 0–0 CoritibaSerie B
Leading scorers: Coritiba and Cruzeiro
Coritiba
- Pedro Rocha8 goals1 assists
- Breno Lopes8 goals1 assists
Cruzeiro
- Matheus Pereira8 goals4 assists
- Kaio Jorge7 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.