Coritiba
vs
Cruzeiro
The model makes it 26% Coritiba, 24% draw, 50% Cruzeiro — fair odds of 3.85, 4.17 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Coritiba 1.23, Cruzeiro 1.78.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Coritiba vs Cruzeiro
- 6 February 2026Cruzeiro 1–2 CoritibaSerie A
- 11 November 2023Coritiba 1–0 CruzeiroSerie A
- 16 July 2023Cruzeiro 0–0 CoritibaSerie A
- 9 October 2021Coritiba 0–3 CruzeiroSerie B
- 6 July 2021Cruzeiro 0–0 CoritibaSerie B
- 18 October 2017Coritiba 1–0 CruzeiroSerie A
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cruzeiro the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Coritiba against 1.78 for Cruzeiro. Coritiba's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.06/0.93 for Cruzeiro.