Coritiba vs Cruzeiro Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Coritiba 0-1 Cruzeiro.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Coritiba, 25% draw, 47% Cruzeiro — fair odds of 3.57, 4.00 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cruzeiro at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Coritiba vs Cruzeiro
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Pedro MoriscoG
- 2TingaD
- 55Jacy MaranhãoD
- 23Tiago CóserD
- 26Bruno MeloD
- 21Thiago SantosM
- 19Sebastian GomezM
- 11Lucas RonierM
- 10JosuéM
- 77Breno LopesM
- 32Pedro RochaF
- 50Vitor Gonçalves TissiM
- 6Felipe JonatanD
- 99Rodrigo RodriguesF
- 17Brian OcampoF
- 20KenoF
- 22Pedro RangelG
- 4Rodrigo MoledoD
- 3MaiconD
- 44João Pedro ChermontD
- 81Otávio CostaG
- 12William FurtadoD
- 15Fabrício BrunoD
- 34Jonathan JesusD
- 27Gabriel RojasD
- 29Lucas RomeroM
- 8GersonM
- 99Keny ArroyoM
- 10Matheus PereiraM
- 38Felipe MoraisM
- 19Kaio JorgeF
- 70Kaique KenjiF
- 7Matheus HenriqueM
- 11MarquinhosF
- 9Bruno RodriguesF
- 25Lucas VillalbaD
- 51Vitor LamounierG
- 2Kauã MoraesD
- 43João MarceloD
- 57Rayan LelisF
Form going into Coritiba vs Cruzeiro
Coritiba
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to RB Bragantino26 July 2026
- L1-3Palmeiras22 July 2026
Cruzeiro
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Botafogo26 July 2026
- W2-1away to Internacional23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Coritiba | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 39 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 52 | 46 | +6 | 57 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Coritiba vs Cruzeiro
- 6 February 2026Cruzeiro 1–2 CoritibaSerie A
- 11 November 2023Coritiba 1–0 CruzeiroSerie A
- 16 July 2023Cruzeiro 0–0 CoritibaSerie A
- 9 October 2021Coritiba 0–3 CruzeiroSerie B
- 6 July 2021Cruzeiro 0–0 CoritibaSerie B
Leading scorers: Coritiba and Cruzeiro
Coritiba
GoalsAssists
- Pedro Rocha81
- Breno Lopes81
Cruzeiro
GoalsAssists
- Kaio Jorge122
- Matheus Pereira97
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cruzeiro won 1–0 at Coritiba. The model had made a win for Cruzeiro its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Matheus Pereira 66' for Cruzeiro. On expected goals it finished 0.97–2.32.