Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Philadelphia Union 3-2 Atlanta United FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 66% Philadelphia Union, 17% draw, 17% Atlanta United FC — fair odds of 1.52, 5.88 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Philadelphia Union at 66% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 275 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 18Andre BlakeG
- 39Frankie WestfieldD
- 44Neil PierreD
- 26Nathan HarrielD
- 27Kai WagnerD
- 6Cavan SullivanM
- 4Jovan LukićM
- 21Danley Jean JacquesM
- 19Indiana VassilevM
- 10Milan IloskiF
- 9Bruno DamianiF
- 33Quinn SullivanM
- 8Jesus BuenoM
- 28Agustin AnelloF
- 23Ezekiel AlladohF
- 11Alejandro BedoyaM
- 76Andrew RickG
- 5Japhet Sery LarsenD
- 2Geiner MartínezD
- 16Ben BenderM
- 1Lucas HoyosG
- 55Tomás JacobD
- 4Enea MihajD
- 6Junior AlonsoD
- 47Matthew EdwardsM
- 28William ReillyM
- 8Tristan MuyumbaM
- 3Elías BáezM
- 59Aleksey MiranchukF
- 22Fafà PicaultF
- 10Miguel AlmirónF
- 5Stian GregersenD
- 20Luke BrennanM
- 39Arif KovacF
- 2Ronald HernándezD
- 42Jayden HibbertG
- 41Toto MajubD
- 23Adyn TorresM
- 16Adrian GillM
- 30Cayman TogashiF
Form going into Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC
Philadelphia Union
- W1-0Seattle Sounders25 July 2026
- W3-1New York Red Bulls22 July 2026
Atlanta United FC
- L1-4away to New England Revolution25 July 2026
- D2-2away to Charlotte23 July 2026
- L0-1away to Nashville SC18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC
- 1 August 2026Philadelphia Union 3–2 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 14 March 2026Atlanta United FC 3–1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 17 May 2025Atlanta United FC 0–1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 19 April 2025Philadelphia Union 3–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 28 September 2024Philadelphia Union 1–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 14 April 2024Atlanta United FC 2–2 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Philadelphia Union and Atlanta United FC
Philadelphia Union
- M. Iloski12 goals2 assists
Atlanta United FC
No leading scorers listed yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.