Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 18 · 1 August 2026, 23:30 UTC

Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC

Subaru Park, Philadelphia

The model makes it 66% Philadelphia Union, 17% draw, 17% Atlanta United FC — fair odds of 1.52, 5.88 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).

Expected goals: Philadelphia Union 2.86, Atlanta United FC 1.44.

Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 80%, under 2.5: 20%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

72%
Both teams to score
80%
Over 2.5 goals
20%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-1 8%3-1 8%1-1 6%

Head-to-head: Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC

  • 14 March 2026Atlanta United FC 3–1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
  • 17 May 2025Atlanta United FC 0–1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
  • 19 April 2025Philadelphia Union 3–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 28 September 2024Philadelphia Union 1–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 14 April 2024Atlanta United FC 2–2 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
  • 4 October 2023Philadelphia Union 3–2 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Philadelphia Union the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.86 expected goals for Philadelphia Union against 1.44 for Atlanta United FC. Philadelphia Union's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.7 for Atlanta United FC.