Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Philadelphia Union 3-2 Atlanta United FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 66% Philadelphia Union, 17% draw, 17% Atlanta United FC — fair odds of 1.52, 5.88 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Philadelphia Union at 66% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 410 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.3%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 18Andre BlakeG
- 39Frankie WestfieldD
- 44Neil PierreD
- 26Nathan HarrielD
- 27Kai WagnerD
- 6Cavan SullivanM
- 4Jovan LukićM
- 21Danley Jean JacquesM
- 19Indiana VassilevM
- 10Milan IloskiF
- 9Bruno DamianiF
- 33Quinn SullivanM
- 8Jesus BuenoM
- 28Agustin AnelloF
- 23Ezekiel AlladohF
- 11Alejandro BedoyaM
- 76Andrew RickG
- 5Japhet Sery LarsenD
- 2Geiner MartínezD
- 16Ben BenderM
- 1Lucas HoyosG
- 55Tomás JacobD
- 4Enea MihajD
- 6Junior AlonsoD
- 47Matthew EdwardsM
- 28William ReillyM
- 8Tristan MuyumbaM
- 3Elías BáezM
- 59Aleksey MiranchukF
- 22Fafà PicaultF
- 10Miguel AlmirónF
- 5Stian GregersenD
- 20Luke BrennanM
- 39Arif KovacF
- 2Ronald HernándezD
- 42Jayden HibbertG
- 41Toto MajubD
- 23Adyn TorresM
- 16Adrian GillM
- 30Cayman TogashiF
Form going into Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC
Philadelphia Union
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Seattle Sounders25 July 2026
- W3-1New York Red Bulls22 July 2026
Atlanta United FC
All competitions we cover
- L1-4away to New England Revolution25 July 2026
- D2-2away to Charlotte23 July 2026
- L0-1away to Nashville SC18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 62 | 50 | +12 | 47 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 32 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 40 | 56 | -16 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC
- 14 March 2026Atlanta United FC 3–1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 17 May 2025Atlanta United FC 0–1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 19 April 2025Philadelphia Union 3–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 28 September 2024Philadelphia Union 1–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 14 April 2024Atlanta United FC 2–2 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Philadelphia Union and Atlanta United FC
Philadelphia Union
GoalsAssists
- M. Iloski192
Atlanta United FC
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 40 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Philadelphia Union beat Atlanta United FC 3–2. The model had made a win for Philadelphia Union its most likely outcome, at 66%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: M. Almiron 30' for Atlanta United FC, T. Muyumba 66' for Atlanta United FC, M. Iloski 73' for Philadelphia Union, N. Pierre 90+6' for Philadelphia Union, E. Alladoh 90+7' for Philadelphia Union. Sent off: E. Mihaj (Atlanta United FC) 26'. On expected goals it finished 2.64–0.53.