New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: New England Revolution 4-2 Orlando City SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% New England Revolution, 28% draw, 30% Orlando City SC — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts New England Revolution at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30M. TurnerG
- 8M. PolsterD
- 22E. KohlerD
- 2M. FofanaD
- 23W. SandsD
- 10C. GilM
- 21B. RainesM
- 14J. YueillM
- 25P. MillerF
- 99D. TurgemanF
- 16D. GazdagF
- 73J. GunnG
- 66J. WynderD
- 4T. BeasonD
- 15C. BakerD
- 12I. FeingoldD
- 65J. SiqueiraF
- 77D. FagundezM
- 17M. ZambranoF
- 27W. HarrisF
- 71M. CrepeauG
- 77I. AnguloD
- 4D. BrekaloD
- 6R. JanssonD
- 44B. RheinD
- 87M. PasalicM
- 5Luis OtavioM
- 35J. GerbetM
- 14T. SpicerM
- 22J. EllisF
- 10M. OjedaF
- 12J. OteroG
- 19Z. TaifiM
- 3A. Gomez
- 27Vinicius NogueiraD
- 16W. CartagenaM
- 20E. AtuestaM
- 9D. DikeF
- 11TiagoF
- 23H. SarajianF
Form going into New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC
New England Revolution
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Chicago Fire13 September 2026
- W2-1away to New York City FC10 September 2026
- L1-2away to Los Angeles Galaxy6 September 2026
- W3-1away to Columbus Crew30 August 2026
- D1-1New York City FC23 August 2026
Orlando City SC
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Toronto FC12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Atlanta United FC9 September 2026
- W1-0San Diego5 September 2026
- D3-3away to Minnesota United FC30 August 2026
- W2-1Real Salt Lake22 August 2026
What these results say
- New England Revolution scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- New England Revolution conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for New England Revolution.
- Orlando City SC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Orlando City SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Orlando City SC won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | New England Revolution | 32 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 54 | 44 | +10 | 58 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 62 | 74 | -12 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC
- 29 April 2026New England Revolution 3–4 Orlando City SCUS Open Cup
- 19 July 2025New England Revolution 1–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 10 May 2025Orlando City SC 3–3 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 14 September 2024Orlando City SC 3–0 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 13 July 2024New England Revolution 1–3 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 11 February 2024Orlando City SC 3–1 New England RevolutionFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: New England Revolution and Orlando City SC
New England Revolution
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 54 league goals as a side.
Orlando City SC
GoalsAssists
- M. Ojeda164
- A. Griezmann147
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
New England Revolution beat Orlando City SC 4–2. The model had made a win for New England Revolution its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: C. Gil 19' for New England Revolution, P. Miller 59' for New England Revolution, I. Angulo 62' for Orlando City SC, M. Ojeda (penalty) 88' for Orlando City SC, P. Miller 90' for New England Revolution, C. Gil 90' for New England Revolution. On expected goals it finished 1.74–1.34.
How the call on New England Revolution v Orlando City SC has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 46% / 27% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is New England Revolution's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- New England Revolution win42%▼ −4
- Draw28%▲ +1
- Orlando City SC win30%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.