19 September 2026, 23:30 UTC

San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC Major League Soccer prediction & result

PayPal Park, San Jose
Full time2 – 2

Final score: San Jose Earthquakes 2-2 Los Angeles FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% San Jose Earthquakes, 28% draw, 25% Los Angeles FC — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts San Jose Earthquakes at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

San Jose Earthquakes0%Draw7%Los Angeles FC93%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

34'
⚽Son Heung-Minassist: M. Delgado
36'
Aaron Long
🔁D. Munieout: Vitor Costa
46'
🔁J. Rickettsout: P. Judd
46'
46'
🔁A. Siebout: Nkosi Tafari
53'
⚽D. Bouangaassist: Son Heung-Min
🔁B. Kikanovicout: P. Marie
62'
🔁O. Boudaout: T. Werner
62'
Preston Judd
66'
⚽P. Juddassist: T. Werner
70'
73'
Mark Delgado
75'
Sergi Palencia
🔁R. Vieiraout: J. Skahan
78'
78'
🔁M. Choiniereout: T. Boyd
86'
🔁D. Bouangaout: J. Shaffelburg
Niko Tsakiris
90+6'
90+2'
🔁Son Heung-Minout: J. Ebobisse
⚽R. Robertsassist: B. Leroux
90'

Match stats — San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC

69%Possession31%
21Shots3
9On target2
15Corners3
1.11xG0.36

Goals against chances

San Jose Earthquakes2 from 1.11 xGmore than the chances were worth
Los Angeles FC2 from 0.36 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

San Jose Earthquakes 3-4-2-1
  • 1A. GunnG
  • 5D. MunieD
  • 4D. RomneyD
  • 18R. RobertsD
  • 28B. KikanovicM
  • 14R. VieiraM
  • 23E. LowenM
  • 2J. RickettsM
  • 10N. TsakirisF
  • 34B. LerouxF
  • 7O. BoudaF
Substitutes
  • 36E. EdwardsG
  • 87Vitor CostaD
  • 3P. MarieD
  • 17J. JasinskiD
  • 16J. SkahanM
  • 6I. HarkesM
  • 20N. FernandezM
  • 19P. JuddF
  • 11T. WernerF
Coach: Bruce Arena
Los Angeles FC 4-3-3
  • 1H. LlorisG
  • 14S. PalenciaD
  • 5R. PorteousD
  • 33A. LongD
  • 23Y. CheberkoD
  • 66M. ChoiniereM
  • 4E. SeguraM
  • 8M. DelgadoM
  • 9A. SiebF
  • 7Son Heung-MinF
  • 99D. BouangaF
Substitutes
  • 31C. CarterG
  • 24R. HollingsheadD
  • 45K. Nielsen
  • 91Nkosi TafariD
  • 22J. TerryM
  • 21L. WaltaM
  • 19T. BoydF
  • 18J. ShaffelburgF
  • 17J. EbobisseF
Coach: Marc Dos Santos

Form going into San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC

San Jose Earthquakes

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Houston Dynamo13 September 2026
  • W3-2away to San Diego10 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Austin6 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Houston Dynamo30 August 2026
  • L1-5Minnesota United FC23 August 2026

Los Angeles FC

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3away to Sporting Kansas City13 September 2026
  • W2-0New York Red Bulls10 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Real Salt Lake6 September 2026
  • D0-0away to DC United29 August 2026
  • D1-1Portland Timbers23 August 2026

What these results say

  • San Jose Earthquakes scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Los Angeles FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Los Angeles FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5San Jose Earthquakes32131095447+749
6Los Angeles FC32121195035+1547

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC

  • 19 April 2026Los Angeles FC 1–4 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
  • 14 September 2025San Jose Earthquakes 2–4 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
  • 13 April 2025Los Angeles FC 2–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
  • 25 January 2025Los Angeles FC 1–1 San Jose EarthquakesFriendlies Clubs
  • 20 October 2024Los Angeles FC 3–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: San Jose Earthquakes and Los Angeles FC

San Jose Earthquakes

GoalsAssists

  • P. Judd162

Los Angeles FC

GoalsAssists

  • D. Bouanga185

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

San Jose Earthquakes and Los Angeles FC drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for San Jose Earthquakes at 47% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Son Heung-Min 34' for Los Angeles FC, D. Bouanga 53' for Los Angeles FC, P. Judd 70' for San Jose Earthquakes, R. Roberts 90' for San Jose Earthquakes. Sent off: Aaron Long (Los Angeles FC) 36'. On expected goals it finished 1.11–0.36.

How the call on San Jose Earthquakes v Los Angeles FC has moved

First published on 5 Sep at 40% / 29% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 47% / 28% / 25%: the biggest move is San Jose Earthquakes's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. San Jose Earthquakes win47%▲ +7
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Los Angeles FC win25%▼ −6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.