San Jose Earthquakes
vs
Los Angeles FC
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: San Jose Earthquakes 2–1 Los Angeles FC
The model makes it 47% San Jose Earthquakes, 27% draw, 26% Los Angeles FC — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: San Jose Earthquakes 1.90, Los Angeles FC 1.11.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are San Jose Earthquakes wins, grey are draws, red are Los Angeles FC wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts San Jose Earthquakes at 47% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC
San Jose Earthquakes
- W1-0Houston Dynamo13 September 2026
- W3-2away to San Diego10 September 2026
- D1-1away to Austin6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Houston Dynamo30 August 2026
- L1-5Minnesota United FC23 August 2026
Los Angeles FC
- L1-3away to Sporting Kansas City13 September 2026
- W2-0New York Red Bulls10 September 2026
- D2-2away to Real Salt Lake6 September 2026
- D0-0away to DC United29 August 2026
- D1-1Portland Timbers23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 41 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 41 | 27 | +14 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: San Jose Earthquakes and Los Angeles FC
San Jose Earthquakes
- P. Judd12 goals2 assists
Los Angeles FC
- D. Bouanga13 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
San Jose Earthquakes carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.42 for Los Angeles FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.90 goals for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.11 for Los Angeles FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
San Jose Earthquakes rate 0.74 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Los Angeles FC rate 0.67 and 1.58.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives San Jose Earthquakes a 3.9% chance of the title and Los Angeles FC 1.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives San Jose Earthquakes the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.9 expected goals for San Jose Earthquakes against 1.11 for Los Angeles FC. San Jose Earthquakes's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.58 for Los Angeles FC.