DC United vs Charlotte Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: DC United 1-2 Charlotte.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% DC United, 29% draw, 33% Charlotte — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts DC United at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — DC United vs Charlotte
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. JohnsonG
- 2K. NonoD
- 3L. BartlettD
- 15K. RowlesD
- 6K. KurokawaD
- 23B. ServaniaM
- 21A. DozzellM
- 7PeglowM
- 25J. HopkinsF
- 9T. BariboF
- 11L. MunteanuF
- 26A. BonoG
- 5S. HeftiD
- 13S. NealisD
- 12C. AntleyD
- 27N. MarkovicD
- 77H. KijimaM
- 4M. PeltolaD
- 8J. StroudM
- 22N. OrdazF
- 1K. KahlinaG
- 14N. ByrneD
- 22H. KesslerD
- 3T. ReamD
- 23D. SchneggD
- 8A. WestwoodM
- 13B. BronicoM
- 11L. AbadaM
- 16P. BielM
- 10A. Saint-MaximinM
- 9I. ToklomatiF
- 21T. MillerG
- 15H. ToffoloD
- 44M. AgyemangD
- 35W. ClearyD
- 17L. de la TorreM
- 28D. DianiM
- 37R. AlokoF
- 7A. GoodwinF
- 25T. SmallsF
Form going into DC United vs Charlotte
DC United
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Atlanta United FC12 September 2026
- W2-1Columbus Crew9 September 2026
- D0-0Los Angeles FC29 August 2026
- L1-3away to Charlotte22 August 2026
- L0-3New England Revolution19 August 2026
Charlotte
All competitions we cover
- D3-3away to FC Cincinnati12 September 2026
- W2-1away to CF Montreal9 September 2026
- D0-0Houston Dynamo5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Atlanta United FC29 August 2026
- W3-1DC United22 August 2026
What these results say
- DC United failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Charlotte went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Charlotte scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | DC United | 32 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 39 | 57 | -18 | 33 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 59 | 48 | +11 | 50 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: DC United vs Charlotte
- 22 August 2026Charlotte 3–1 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 4 October 2025DC United 0–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 16 July 2025Charlotte 2–1 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 21 May 2025DC United 2–2 CharlotteUS Open Cup
- 20 October 2024DC United 0–3 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 15 June 2024Charlotte 1–0 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: DC United and Charlotte
DC United
GoalsAssists
- T. Baribo161
Charlotte
GoalsAssists
- I. Toklomati Giorno155
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Charlotte won 2–1 at DC United. The model had leaned towards a win for DC United at 38% and given a win for Charlotte 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: A. Westwood 22' for Charlotte, L. Bartlett 47' for DC United, A. Saint-Maximin 71' for Charlotte. On expected goals it finished 2.85–0.90.
How the call on DC United v Charlotte has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 43% / 27% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 38% / 29% / 33%: the biggest move is DC United's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- DC United win38%▼ −5
- Draw29%▲ +2
- Charlotte win33%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.