19 September 2026, 23:30 UTC

CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew Major League Soccer prediction & result

Saputo Stadium, Montreal
Full time0 – 2

Final score: CF Montreal 0-2 Columbus Crew.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% CF Montreal, 31% draw, 30% Columbus Crew — fair odds of 2.56, 3.23 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts CF Montreal at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

CF Montreal0%Draw1%Columbus Crew99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Brayan Ceballos
2'
32'
Steven Moreira
57'
⚽M. Farsiassist: S. Zawadzki
•Prince Owusu
60'
🔁F. Herbersout: W. Carmona
63'
🔁G. Synchukout: D. Sealy
63'
68'
⚽B. Mendez
69'
🔁A. Zarouryout: B. Lennon
69'
🔁J. Martinezout: G. Tapia
🔁B. Ceballosout: N. Streit
74'
🔁V. Loturiout: M. Longstaff
75'
🔁A. Sanchezout: D. Rios
75'
81'
🔁S. Moreiraout: E. Bailly
81'
🔁S. Rodriguezout: T. Karumanchi
Samuel Piette
84'
90'
🔁M. Farsiout: C. Ruvalcaba

Match stats — CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew

55%Possession45%
9Shots13
2On target3
5Corners1
0.47xG0.92

Goals against chances

CF Montreal0 from 0.47 xGabout what the chances were worth
Columbus Crew2 from 0.92 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

CF Montreal 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. BrezaG
  • 3B. CeballosD
  • 24E. MoralesD
  • 2J. NealD
  • 13L. PetrassoD
  • 22V. LoturiM
  • 6S. PietteM
  • 18G. SynchukM
  • 21F. HerbersM
  • 10A. SanchezM
  • 9P. OwusuF
Substitutes
  • 41S. KeitaG
  • 27D. BugajD
  • 5B. CraigD
  • 28V. RadojevicD
  • 8M. LongstaffM
  • 16W. CarmonaM
  • 23N. StreitM
  • 14D. RiosF
  • 17D. SealyM
Coach: Philippe Eullaffroy
Columbus Crew 3-4-2-1
  • 28P. SchulteG
  • 31S. MoreiraD
  • 25S. ZawadzkiD
  • 18M. AmundsenD
  • 23M. FarsiM
  • 16T. HabrouneM
  • 20A. GomesM
  • 21A. ZarouryM
  • 10B. MendezF
  • 8S. RodriguezF
  • 77J. MartinezF
Substitutes
  • 1N. HagenG
  • 3E. BaillyD
  • 2A. HerreraD
  • 12C. RuvalcabaD
  • 11B. LennonD
  • 7D. ChambostM
  • 14A. SejdicM
  • 50T. KarumanchiM
  • 33G. TapiaF
Coach: Laurent Courtois

Form going into CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew

CF Montreal

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Colorado Rapids13 September 2026
  • L1-2Charlotte9 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Philadelphia Union5 September 2026
  • L1-7away to Inter Miami29 August 2026
  • D2-2Los Angeles Galaxy22 August 2026

Columbus Crew

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1New York Red Bulls12 September 2026
  • L1-2away to DC United9 September 2026
  • W3-0Colorado Rapids5 September 2026
  • L1-3New England Revolution30 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Nashville SC23 August 2026

What these results say

  • CF Montreal did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • CF Montreal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Columbus Crew failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Columbus Crew scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Columbus Crew conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15CF Montreal3267193666-3025
9Columbus Crew32125155249+341

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew

  • 19 August 2026Columbus Crew 1–2 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
  • 14 May 2025CF Montreal 1–1 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
  • 5 April 2025Columbus Crew 2–1 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
  • 15 May 2024CF Montreal 1–3 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
  • 27 April 2024Columbus Crew 0–0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
  • 22 October 2023Columbus Crew 2–1 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: CF Montreal and Columbus Crew

CF Montreal

GoalsAssists

  • P. Owusu156

Columbus Crew

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 52 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Columbus Crew won 2–0 at CF Montreal. The model had leaned towards a win for CF Montreal at 39% and given a win for Columbus Crew 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: M. Farsi 57' for Columbus Crew, B. Mendez 68' for Columbus Crew. On expected goals it finished 0.47–0.92.

How the call on CF Montreal v Columbus Crew has moved

First published on 5 Sep at 41% / 30% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 39% / 31% / 30%: the biggest move is CF Montreal's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. CF Montreal win39%▼ −2
  2. Draw31%▲ +1
  3. Columbus Crew win30%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.