10 September 2026, 00:30 UTC

Austin vs Colorado Rapids Major League Soccer prediction & result

Q2 Stadium, Austin
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Austin 1-1 Colorado Rapids.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Austin, 29% draw, 32% Colorado Rapids — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Austin at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Austin4%Draw93%Colorado Rapids3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
⚽Paxten Aaronson
27'
🔁Youssef Mazizout: Joshua Atencio
45+4'
Joshua Atencio
🔁Ilie Sánchezout: Jorge Alastuey
45'
🔁Jon Gallagherout: Žan Kolmanič
58'
🔁Brandon Vazquezout: Christian Ramirez
58'
62'
Reggie Cannon
69'
🔁Donavan Phillipout: Georgi Minoungou
⚽Facundo Daniel Torres Perezassist: Žan Kolmanič
79'
🔁Besard Sabovicout: Przemyslaw Płacheta
82'
86'
🔁Darren Yapiout: Alexander Dean Harris
86'
🔁Miguel Navarroout: Jackson Travis

Match stats — Austin vs Colorado Rapids

57%Possession43%
11Shots11
2On target5
8Corners4

Line-ups

Austin
  • 1B. StuverG
  • 3M. DeslerD
  • 15J. BellD
  • 29Guilherme BiroD
  • 30J. RosalesM
  • 6I. SanchezM
  • 14B. SabovicM
  • 17J. GallagherM
  • 11F. TorresF
  • 9B. VazquezF
  • 38E. TorresF
Substitutes
  • 12D. LasG
  • 5O. SvatokD
  • 4B. Hines-IkeD
  • 23Z. KolmanicD
  • 35M. DjordjevicD
  • 32M. BurtonM
  • 24J. AlastueyM
  • 21C. RamirezF
  • 77P. PlachetaM
Colorado Rapids 4-3-3
  • 41N. HansenG
  • 4R. CannonD
  • 6R. HoldingD
  • 5L. WilliamsD
  • 29M. NavarroD
  • 8H. OjediranM
  • 88Y. MazizM
  • 13W. FrederickM
  • 32D. PhillipF
  • 77D. YapiF
  • 10P. AaronsonF
Substitutes
  • 61B. DowdG
  • 31A. BeaudryG
  • 33K. ThompsonD
  • 99J. TravisD
  • 2K. RosenberryD
  • 24N. CobbD
  • 12J. AtencioM
  • 93G. MinoungouF
  • 16A. HarrisF
Coach: Matt Wells

Form going into Austin vs Colorado Rapids

Austin

  • D1-1San Jose Earthquakes6 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Portland Timbers30 August 2026
  • D1-1Philadelphia Union23 August 2026

Colorado Rapids

  • L0-3away to Columbus Crew5 September 2026
  • W1-0Real Salt Lake30 August 2026
  • L0-3away to San Diego23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Austin2578103244-1229
7Colorado Rapids25112123332+135

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Austin vs Colorado Rapids

  • 10 September 2026Austin 1–1 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
  • 2 August 2026Colorado Rapids 1–0 AustinMajor League Soccer
  • 8 June 2025Colorado Rapids 0–2 AustinMajor League Soccer
  • 9 March 2025Austin 0–1 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
  • 20 October 2024Austin 3–2 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
  • 16 June 2024Colorado Rapids 2–0 AustinMajor League Soccer
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.