Austin vs Colorado Rapids Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Austin 1-1 Colorado Rapids.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Austin, 29% draw, 32% Colorado Rapids — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Austin at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Austin vs Colorado Rapids
Line-ups
- 1B. StuverG
- 3M. DeslerD
- 15J. BellD
- 29Guilherme BiroD
- 30J. RosalesM
- 6I. SanchezM
- 14B. SabovicM
- 17J. GallagherM
- 11F. TorresF
- 9B. VazquezF
- 38E. TorresF
- 12D. LasG
- 5O. SvatokD
- 4B. Hines-IkeD
- 23Z. KolmanicD
- 35M. DjordjevicD
- 32M. BurtonM
- 24J. AlastueyM
- 21C. RamirezF
- 77P. PlachetaM
- 41N. HansenG
- 4R. CannonD
- 6R. HoldingD
- 5L. WilliamsD
- 29M. NavarroD
- 8H. OjediranM
- 88Y. MazizM
- 13W. FrederickM
- 32D. PhillipF
- 77D. YapiF
- 10P. AaronsonF
- 61B. DowdG
- 31A. BeaudryG
- 33K. ThompsonD
- 99J. TravisD
- 2K. RosenberryD
- 24N. CobbD
- 12J. AtencioM
- 93G. MinoungouF
- 16A. HarrisF
Form going into Austin vs Colorado Rapids
Austin
All competitions we cover
- D1-1San Jose Earthquakes6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Portland Timbers30 August 2026
- D1-1Philadelphia Union23 August 2026
- W2-1away to Seattle Sounders20 August 2026
- L1-2FC Dallas17 August 2026
Colorado Rapids
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to Columbus Crew5 September 2026
- W1-0Real Salt Lake30 August 2026
- L0-3away to San Diego23 August 2026
- W1-0Los Angeles FC20 August 2026
- W2-0Sporting Kansas City16 August 2026
What these results say
- Austin scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Austin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Austin.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Austin | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 41 | 59 | -18 | 34 |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 44 | 43 | +1 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Austin vs Colorado Rapids
- 2 August 2026Colorado Rapids 1–0 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 8 June 2025Colorado Rapids 0–2 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 9 March 2025Austin 0–1 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
- 20 October 2024Austin 3–2 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
- 16 June 2024Colorado Rapids 2–0 AustinMajor League Soccer
The result against the call
Austin and Colorado Rapids drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Austin at 39% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Paxten Aaronson 22' for Colorado Rapids, Facundo Daniel Torres Perez 79' for Austin.
How the call on Austin v Colorado Rapids has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 37% / 29% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 39% / 29% / 32%: the biggest move is Austin's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Austin win39%▲ +2
- Draw29%=
- Colorado Rapids win32%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.