10 September 2026, 00:30 UTC

Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami Major League Soccer prediction & result

Soldier Field, Chicago
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Chicago Fire 1-1 Inter Miami.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Chicago Fire, 27% draw, 34% Inter Miami — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Chicago Fire at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Chicago Fire5%Draw91%Inter Miami4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
Telasco Segovia
⚽Robert Lewandowskiassist: Andrew Gutman
10'
24'
Maximiliano Falcon
48'
⚽Carlos Henrique Casimiroassist: Lionel Messi
Jonathan Dean
50'
🔁Robin Lodout: Puso Dithejane
56'
Djé D'Avilla
59'
🔁Jonathan Deanout: Leonardo José Caetano Barroso
67'
🔁Maren Haile-Selassieout: Sergio Oregel
67'
71'
Germán Berterame
78'
🔁Fricio Caicedoout: Facundo Mura
78'
🔁Telasco Segoviaout: Alexander Shaw
🔁Anton Saletrosout: Mauricio Pineda
90+4'

Match stats — Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami

44%Possession56%
10Shots20
3On target8
2Corners5

Line-ups

Chicago Fire 4-4-2
  • 1C. BradyG
  • 24J. DeanD
  • 3J. ElliottD
  • 32N. AllenD
  • 15A. GutmanD
  • 11P. ZinckernagelM
  • 6A. SaletrosM
  • 42D. D'AvillaM
  • 7M. Haile-SelassieM
  • 9R. LewandowskiF
  • 17R. LodF
Substitutes
  • 44J. CohenG
  • 5S. RogersD
  • 22M. PinedaD
  • 2L. BarrosoD
  • 29D. PorebaM
  • 35S. OregelM
  • 37R. TurdeanM
  • 18J. GomezF
  • 12P. DithejaneF
Coach: Mario Barcena
Inter Miami 4-3-1-2
  • 97D. St.ClairG
  • 17I. FrayD
  • 5CasemiroD
  • 37M. FalconD
  • 15F. CaicedoD
  • 7R. de PaulM
  • 42Y. BrightM
  • 8T. SegoviaM
  • 19G. BerterameM
  • 10L. MessiF
  • 9L. SuarezF
Substitutes
  • 34R. RiosG
  • 4F. MuraD
  • 76C. Abadia-RedaD
  • 70D. SumallaD
  • 22D. AyalaM
  • 59P. PlambeckM
  • 88A. ShawM
  • 56D. PinterF
  • 54L. DelinoisF
Coach: Kily Gonzalez

Form going into Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami

Chicago Fire

  • D4-4away to Toronto FC5 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Seattle Sounders29 August 2026
  • D1-1away to New York Red Bulls22 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Orlando City SC19 August 2026
  • W2-1Portland Timbers16 August 2026

Inter Miami

  • D2-2Atlanta United FC5 September 2026
  • W7-1CF Montreal29 August 2026
  • L1-2Toronto FC22 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Philadelphia Union19 August 2026
  • L1-4away to Nashville SC16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami

  • 10 September 2026Chicago Fire 1–1 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
  • 22 July 2026Inter Miami 3–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 30 September 2025Inter Miami 3–5 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 13 April 2025Chicago Fire 0–0 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
  • 1 September 2024Chicago Fire 1–4 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
  • 20 July 2024Inter Miami 2–1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Chicago Fire and Inter Miami

Chicago Fire

  • H. Cuypers13 goals

Inter Miami

  • L. Messi19 goals11 assists
  • L. Suárez11 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.