10 September 2026, 00:30 UTC

Minnesota United FC vs FC Dallas Major League Soccer prediction & result

Allianz Field, Saint Paul
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Minnesota United FC 1-2 FC Dallas.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Minnesota United FC, 27% draw, 28% FC Dallas — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Minnesota United FC at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Minnesota United FC0%Draw6%FC Dallas94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
Osaze Urhoghide
62'
⚽Kaick da Silva Ferreiraassist: Joaquín Valiente Cioli
🔁Marcus Caldeiraout: Tomás Chancalay
63'
🔁Jefferson Abel Díaz Beleñoout: Carlos Harvey
63'
Nectarios Triantis
69'
⚽Kelvin Yeboah
73'
🔁Kelvin Yeboahout: Maurice Malone
74'
🔁Nectarios Triantisout: Owen Gene
74'
77'
🔁Christian Cappisout: Santiago Moreno
77'
🔁Ran Binyaminout: Herman Johansson
83'
Ramiro
84'
🔁Logan Farringtonout: Samuel Sarver
🔁Wil Trappout: Mauricio González Carabalí
84'
84'
⚽Santiago Morenoassist: Samuel Sarver
Owen Gene
89'

Match stats — Minnesota United FC vs FC Dallas

52%Possession48%
8Shots13
2On target6
2Corners6

Line-ups

Minnesota United FC 3-4-1-2
  • 12D. CallenderG
  • 28J. DiazD
  • 15M. BoxallD
  • 23M. DugganD
  • 3K. DuncanM
  • 25N. TriantisM
  • 20W. TrappM
  • 13A. MarkanichM
  • 26J. PereyraF
  • 22M. CaldeiraF
  • 9K. YeboahF
Substitutes
  • 1A. SmirG
  • 5N. RomeroD
  • 33K. ChandlerD
  • 67C. HarveyM
  • 16A. JacksonM
  • 30O. GeneM
  • 11M. MaloneF
  • 8T. ChancalayF
  • 18M. GonzalezF
Coach: Cameron Knowles
FC Dallas 5-4-1
  • 40J. SiroisG
  • 6R. BinyaminD
  • 25S. IbeaghaD
  • 3O. UrhoghideD
  • 18S. MooreD
  • 77B. KamungoD
  • 21J. ValienteM
  • 17RamiroM
  • 12C. CappisM
  • 55KaickM
  • 23L. FarringtonF
Substitutes
  • 30M. CollodiG
  • 32N. NorrisD
  • 24J. TorquatoD
  • 5L. AbubakarD
  • 14H. JohanssonM
  • 8P. DelgadoM
  • 33C. HolstadM
  • 10S. MorenoF
  • 28S. SarverF
Coach: Eric Quill

Form going into Minnesota United FC vs FC Dallas

Minnesota United FC

All competitions we cover

  • L4-5away to Portland Timbers6 September 2026
  • D3-3Orlando City SC30 August 2026
  • W5-1away to San Jose Earthquakes23 August 2026
  • L1-2Atlanta United FC20 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Real Salt Lake16 August 2026

FC Dallas

All competitions we cover

  • W4-3Sporting Kansas City6 September 2026
  • D3-3away to St. Louis City30 August 2026
  • L0-5away to Vancouver Whitecaps23 August 2026
  • W4-3away to Real Salt Lake20 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Austin17 August 2026

What these results say

  • Minnesota United FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Minnesota United FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Minnesota United FC.
  • FC Dallas conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for FC Dallas had three goals or more.
  • FC Dallas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Minnesota United FC32911125056-638
2FC Dallas3215985849+954

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Minnesota United FC vs FC Dallas

  • 23 April 2026FC Dallas 0–1 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 5 July 2025FC Dallas 1–2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 20 April 2025Minnesota United FC 0–0 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
  • 20 June 2024FC Dallas 5–3 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 9 June 2024Minnesota United FC 1–1 FC DallasMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Minnesota United FC and FC Dallas

Minnesota United FC

GoalsAssists

  • K. Yeboah183

FC Dallas

GoalsAssists

  • P. Musa225

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Dallas won 2–1 at Minnesota United FC. The model had leaned towards a win for Minnesota United FC at 45% and given a win for FC Dallas 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Kaick da Silva Ferreira 62' for FC Dallas, Kelvin Yeboah 73' for Minnesota United FC, Santiago Moreno 84' for FC Dallas.

How the call on Minnesota United FC v FC Dallas has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 44% / 29% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 45% / 27% / 28%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.

  1. Minnesota United FC win45%▲ +1
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. FC Dallas win28%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.