Minnesota United FC vs FC Dallas Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Minnesota United FC 1-2 FC Dallas.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Minnesota United FC, 27% draw, 28% FC Dallas — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Minnesota United FC at 45% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Minnesota United FC vs FC Dallas
Line-ups
- 12D. CallenderG
- 28J. DiazD
- 15M. BoxallD
- 23M. DugganD
- 3K. DuncanM
- 25N. TriantisM
- 20W. TrappM
- 13A. MarkanichM
- 26J. PereyraF
- 22M. CaldeiraF
- 9K. YeboahF
- 1A. SmirG
- 5N. RomeroD
- 33K. ChandlerD
- 67C. HarveyM
- 16A. JacksonM
- 30O. GeneM
- 11M. MaloneF
- 8T. ChancalayF
- 18M. GonzalezF
- 40J. SiroisG
- 6R. BinyaminD
- 25S. IbeaghaD
- 3O. UrhoghideD
- 18S. MooreD
- 77B. KamungoD
- 21J. ValienteM
- 17RamiroM
- 12C. CappisM
- 55KaickM
- 23L. FarringtonF
- 30M. CollodiG
- 32N. NorrisD
- 24J. TorquatoD
- 5L. AbubakarD
- 14H. JohanssonM
- 8P. DelgadoM
- 33C. HolstadM
- 10S. MorenoF
- 28S. SarverF
Form going into Minnesota United FC vs FC Dallas
Minnesota United FC
- L4-5away to Portland Timbers6 September 2026
- D3-3Orlando City SC30 August 2026
- W5-1away to San Jose Earthquakes23 August 2026
FC Dallas
- W4-3Sporting Kansas City6 September 2026
- D3-3away to St. Louis City30 August 2026
- L0-5away to Vancouver Whitecaps23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Minnesota United FC | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 29 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | +7 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Minnesota United FC vs FC Dallas
- 10 September 2026Minnesota United FC 1–2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 23 April 2026FC Dallas 0–1 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 5 July 2025FC Dallas 1–2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 20 April 2025Minnesota United FC 0–0 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 20 June 2024FC Dallas 5–3 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 9 June 2024Minnesota United FC 1–1 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Minnesota United FC and FC Dallas
Minnesota United FC
- K. Yeboah13 goals2 assists
FC Dallas
- P. Musa18 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.