New York City FC vs Nashville SC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: New York City FC 0-0 Nashville SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% New York City FC, 29% draw, 28% Nashville SC — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts New York City FC at 43% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 1,415 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — New York City FC vs Nashville SC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 49M. FreeseG
- 24T. GrayD
- 13Thiago MartinsD
- 34Raul GustavoD
- 22K. O'TooleD
- 6J. SandsM
- 8A. PereaM
- 26A. OjedaM
- 7N. MercauM
- 9B. TraoreM
- 20LuighiF
- 30T. RomeroG
- 23M. MurrayD
- 2N. CavalloD
- 21A. O'NeillM
- 27C. FlaxM
- 35M. IlenicD
- 32J. ShoreM
- 88M. JonesF
- 16A. MartinezF
- 99B. SchwakeG
- 31A. NajarD
- 4J. PalaciosD
- 3M. WoledziD
- 27R. Baker-WhitingD
- 8P. YazbekM
- 20E. TagsethM
- 7C. EspinozaM
- 10H. MukhtarM
- 11E. SaadM
- 9S. SurridgeF
- 1J. WillisG
- 5J. MaherD
- 22J. BauerD
- 2D. LovitzD
- 6B. AcostaM
- 16M. CorcoranM
- 37A. QasemF
- 14S. MohammedM
- 19A. MuylM
Form going into New York City FC vs Nashville SC
New York City FC
- D1-1away to Toronto FC29 August 2026
- D1-1away to New England Revolution23 August 2026
- L1-2away to FC Cincinnati19 August 2026
- L2-3Philadelphia Union16 August 2026
- D1-1Toronto FC31 July 2026
Nashville SC
- W4-0FC Cincinnati30 August 2026
- W3-2Columbus Crew23 August 2026
- W1-0away to New York Red Bulls19 August 2026
- W4-1Inter Miami16 August 2026
- D2-2away to DC United1 August 2026
What these results say
- New York City FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- New York City FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- New York City FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Nashville SC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Nashville SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Nashville SC won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | New York City FC | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 41 | 36 | +5 | 33 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 55 | 21 | +34 | 60 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: New York City FC vs Nashville SC
- 24 May 2026Nashville SC 2–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 17 August 2025New York City FC 2–1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- 31 May 2025Nashville SC 2–2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 6 October 2024New York City FC 3–1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- 23 June 2024Nashville SC 1–0 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 15 April 2023New York City FC 2–1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: New York City FC and Nashville SC
New York City FC
- N. Fernández Mercau15 goals4 assists
Nashville SC
- S. Surridge16 goals1 assist
- H. Mukhtar13 goals6 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.