3 September 2026, 17:00 UTC

Al Ahly vs Smouha SC Premier League prediction & result

Cairo International Stadium, Cairo
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Al Ahly 1-0 Smouha SC.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Al Ahly, 25% draw, 24% Smouha SC — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Al Ahly at 51% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al Ahly97%Draw3%Smouha SC0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

-5'
Hussein Taimor
45+3'
Hesham Hafez
Taher Mohamed
55'
Mohamed Hany
57'
57'
Amr El Sisi
61'
🔁A. Samadouout: M. Adel
61'
🔁M. Faroukout: A. Mohamed
🔁T. Mohamedout: Afsha
67'
🔁A. Mahmoudout: M. Bakrar
67'
73'
🔁A. El Sisiout: A. El Nadry
73'
🔁M. Desoukiout: E. Nweke
81'
🔁H. Hafezout: A. Gamal
🔁Zizoout: A. Abdallah
86'
⚽Y. Ibrahim
87'
🔁S. Benjdidaout: A. Reda
90+2'

Match stats — Al Ahly vs Smouha SC

66%Possession34%
21Shots0
4On target0
9Corners1
1.61xG0

Goals against chances

Al Ahly1 from 1.61 xGless than the chances were worth
Smouha SC0 from 0.00 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al Ahly 4-2-3-1
  • 31O. ShobeirG
  • 30M. HanyD
  • 6Y. IbrahimD
  • 26A. El GazarD
  • 36A. KoukaD
  • 21A. MahmoudM
  • 13M. AteyaM
  • 7T. MohamedM
  • 25ZizoM
  • 17A. BencharkiM
  • 9S. BenjdidaF
Substitutes
  • 1M. El ShenawyG
  • 5H. ReyadD
  • 28K. FouadD
  • 2Y. MareiD
  • 19AfshaM
  • 8A. RedaD
  • 14H. El ShahatM
  • 10M. BakrarF
  • 27A. AbdallahF
Coach: Hussein Ammouta
Smouha SC 4-1-4-1
  • 28A. MayhoubG
  • 2H. HafezD
  • 24M. Ragab
  • 4Abdel Rasoul AhmedD
  • 3M. DesoukiD
  • 15A. SamadouM
  • 11M. FaroukM
  • 10K. El GhandourM
  • 7A. El SisiM
  • 8S. Fekri
  • 23F. FaridF
Substitutes
  • 1H. TaimourG
  • 30A. GamalD
  • 19M. AdelM
  • 17A. El Nadry
  • 66K. MohamedM
  • 21A. MohamedF
  • 9M. HamdiM
  • 14MakaronaF
  • 45E. NwekeF
Coach: Ahmed Abdelaziz

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Al Ahly8620156+920
10Smouha SC731344010

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Al Ahly and Smouha SC

Al Ahly

GoalsAssists

  • Zizo31
  • A. Bencharki20

Smouha SC

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al Ahly beat Smouha SC 1–0. The model had made a win for Al Ahly its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Y. Ibrahim 87' for Al Ahly. On expected goals it finished 1.61–0.00.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.