Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Philadelphia Union 2-0 CF Montreal.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Philadelphia Union, 28% draw, 26% CF Montreal — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Philadelphia Union at 46% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 1,425 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 18A. BlakeG
- 39F. WestfieldD
- 44N. PierreD
- 26N. HarrielD
- 27K. WagnerD
- 6C. SullivanM
- 21D. Jean JacquesM
- 4J. LukicM
- 19I. VassilevM
- 10M. IloskiF
- 9B. DamianiF
- 76A. RickG
- 5J. Sery LarsenD
- 11A. BedoyaM
- 33Q. SullivanM
- 8J. BuenoM
- 14J. RafanelloM
- 16B. BenderM
- 23E. AlladohF
- 51M. JakupovicF
- 1S. BrezaG
- 27D. BugajD
- 2J. NealD
- 4B. VeraD
- 13L. PetrassoD
- 6S. PietteM
- 8M. LongstaffM
- 18G. SynchukM
- 21F. HerbersM
- 10A. SanchezM
- 9P. OwusuF
- 31T. GillierG
- 3B. CeballosD
- 5B. CraigD
- 22V. LoturiM
- 16W. CarmonaM
- 29O. EscobarF
- 23N. StreitM
- 14D. RiosF
- 17D. SealyM
Form going into Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal
Philadelphia Union
- W3-1away to New York Red Bulls29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Austin23 August 2026
- D2-2Inter Miami19 August 2026
- W3-2away to New York City FC16 August 2026
- W3-2Atlanta United FC1 August 2026
CF Montreal
- L1-7away to Inter Miami29 August 2026
- D2-2Los Angeles Galaxy22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Columbus Crew19 August 2026
- D1-1DC United15 August 2026
- D2-2New England Revolution1 August 2026
What these results say
- Philadelphia Union went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- CF Montreal scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- CF Montreal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for CF Montreal.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 54 | 44 | +10 | 39 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 34 | 54 | -20 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Philadelphia Union and CF Montreal
Philadelphia Union
- M. Iloski16 goals2 assists
CF Montreal
- P. Owusu15 goals6 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.