Orlando City SC vs San Diego Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Orlando City SC 1-0 San Diego.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Orlando City SC, 29% draw, 31% San Diego — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Orlando City SC at 40% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 1,425 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Orlando City SC vs San Diego
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 71M. CrepeauG
- 24G. DorseyD
- 4D. BrekaloD
- 6R. JanssonD
- 44B. RheinD
- 22J. EllisM
- 20E. AtuestaM
- 35J. GerbetM
- 77I. AnguloM
- 7A. GriezmannF
- 9D. DikeF
- 12J. OteroG
- 57Iago TeodoroD
- 19Z. TaifiM
- 16W. CartagenaM
- 10M. OjedaM
- 5Luis OtavioM
- 87M. PasalicF
- 11TiagoF
- 14T. SpicerF
- 1dos Santos CJG
- 33O. VerhoevenD
- 26M. DuahD
- 32I. MurphyD
- 5K. Sargeant
- 70A. Alvarado JrM
- 20A. GodoyM
- 12Gabriel PiraniM
- 10A. DreyerF
- 8O. ValakariF
- 99E. AchouriF
- 18D. FerreeG
- 3D. ThorhallssonD
- 25I. PilcherD
- 97C. McVeyD
- 21B. DukeM
- 19D. VazquezM
- 90A. PellegrinoF
- 77A. MightenF
- 14B. B. ZambleF
Form going into Orlando City SC vs San Diego
Orlando City SC
- D3-3away to Minnesota United FC30 August 2026
- W2-1Real Salt Lake22 August 2026
- L1-2Chicago Fire19 August 2026
- D1-1FC Cincinnati15 August 2026
- L2-3away to New York Red Bulls1 August 2026
San Diego
- W3-1Los Angeles Galaxy30 August 2026
- W3-0Colorado Rapids23 August 2026
- L1-3away to Portland Timbers20 August 2026
- W1-0away to Los Angeles FC16 August 2026
- D1-1away to Minnesota United FC2 August 2026
What these results say
- Orlando City SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Orlando City SC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Orlando City SC.
- San Diego scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 27 | 10 | 4 | 13 | 48 | 64 | -16 | 34 |
| 12 | San Diego | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Orlando City SC and San Diego
Orlando City SC
- M. Ojeda13 goals1 assist
San Diego
- M. Ingvartsen12 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.