Orlando City SC
vs
San Diego
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 47% Orlando City SC, 24% draw, 29% San Diego — fair odds of 2.13, 4.17 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Orlando City SC 1.78, San Diego 1.37.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Orlando City SC
No earlier matches on record this season.
San Diego
- L1-3away to Portland Timbers20 August 2026
- W1-0away to Los Angeles FC16 August 2026
- D1-1away to Minnesota United FC2 August 2026
- W1-0FC Dallas26 July 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Leading scorers
Orlando City SC
No league goals recorded yet.
San Diego
- M. Ingvartsen11 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Orlando City SC carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.57 for San Diego. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Orlando City SC W-W-L-D-L; San Diego L-W-D-W-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.78 goals for Orlando City SC and 1.37 for San Diego. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Orlando City SC rate 0.76 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; San Diego rate 0.71 and 1.24.
That points to 61% for over two and a half goals and 63% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Orlando City SC the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Orlando City SC against 1.37 for San Diego. Orlando City SC's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.24 for San Diego.