Inter Miami
vs
Atlanta United FC
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 71% Inter Miami, 14% draw, 15% Atlanta United FC — fair odds of 1.41, 7.14 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (6%).
Expected goals: Inter Miami 3.60, Atlanta United FC 1.80.
Both teams to score: 81%. Over 2.5 goals: 90%, under 2.5: 10%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Leading scorers
Inter Miami
- L. Messi14 goals8 assists
Atlanta United FC
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Inter Miami carry a model rating of 6.73 against 6.46 for Atlanta United FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Inter Miami W-W-D-L-D; Atlanta United FC D-L-L-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.60 goals for Inter Miami and 1.80 for Atlanta United FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Inter Miami rate 1.23 in attack and 1.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atlanta United FC rate 0.71 and 1.55.
That points to 90% for over two and a half goals and 81% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (6%), 4-1 (6%), 3-2 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter Miami the highest probability at 71%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.6 expected goals for Inter Miami against 1.8 for Atlanta United FC. Inter Miami's attack/defence rating is 1.23/1.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.55 for Atlanta United FC.