Inter Miami vs Atlanta United FC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Inter Miami 2-2 Atlanta United FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Inter Miami, 26% draw, 25% Atlanta United FC — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter Miami at 49% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 1,425 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Inter Miami vs Atlanta United FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 97D. St.ClairG
- 17I. FrayD
- 5CasemiroD
- 37M. FalconD
- 15F. CaicedoD
- 7R. de PaulM
- 42Y. BrightM
- 8T. SegoviaM
- 10L. MessiF
- 19G. BerterameF
- 9L. SuarezF
- 34R. RiosG
- 4F. MuraD
- 76C. Abadia-RedaD
- 22D. AyalaM
- 59P. PlambeckM
- 88A. ShawM
- 56D. PinterF
- 24M. SilvettiF
- 54L. DelinoisF
- 1L. HoyosG
- 55T. JacobD
- 27P. DiazD
- 6J. AlonsoD
- 3E. BaezD
- 28W. ReillyM
- 48C. SanchezM
- 59A. MiranchukM
- 8T. MuyumbaM
- 10M. AlmironM
- 36B. EmboloF
- 42J. HibbertG
- 47M. EdwardsD
- 4E. MihajD
- 16A. GillM
- 7S. AlzateM
- 20L. BrennanM
- 14M. AmaroM
- 22F. PicaultF
- 19Sergio SantosF
Form going into Inter Miami vs Atlanta United FC
Inter Miami
- W7-1CF Montreal29 August 2026
- L1-2Toronto FC22 August 2026
- D2-2away to Philadelphia Union19 August 2026
- L1-4away to Nashville SC16 August 2026
- D2-2Columbus Crew1 August 2026
Atlanta United FC
- L0-2Charlotte29 August 2026
- W2-1Sporting Kansas City23 August 2026
- W2-1away to Minnesota United FC20 August 2026
- W2-1New York Red Bulls15 August 2026
- L2-3away to Philadelphia Union1 August 2026
What these results say
- Inter Miami scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Inter Miami conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Inter Miami had three goals or more.
- Atlanta United FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atlanta United FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Atlanta United FC had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Inter Miami | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 64 | 50 | +14 | 46 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Inter Miami and Atlanta United FC
Inter Miami
- L. Messi21 goals11 assists
- L. Suárez12 goals2 assists
Atlanta United FC
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.