Columbus Crew vs Colorado Rapids Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Columbus Crew 3-0 Colorado Rapids.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Columbus Crew, 30% draw, 34% Colorado Rapids — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Columbus Crew at 36% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 2,416 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Columbus Crew vs Colorado Rapids
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 28P. SchulteG
- 31S. MoreiraD
- 25S. ZawadzkiD
- 18M. AmundsenD
- 11B. LennonD
- 23M. FarsiM
- 50T. KarumanchiM
- 20A. GomesM
- 8S. RodriguezM
- 10B. MendezF
- 77J. MartinezF
- 1N. HagenG
- 3E. BaillyD
- 2A. HerreraD
- 12C. RuvalcabaD
- 16T. HabrouneM
- 7D. ChambostM
- 14A. SejdicM
- 26L. GiacconeM
- 33G. TapiaF
- 31A. BeaudryG
- 24N. CobbD
- 6R. HoldingD
- 5L. WilliamsD
- 29M. NavarroD
- 12J. AtencioM
- 10P. AaronsonM
- 13W. FrederickM
- 77D. YapiF
- 88Y. MazizF
- 93G. MinoungouF
- 61B. DowdG
- 33K. ThompsonD
- 99J. TravisD
- 2K. RosenberryD
- 4R. CannonD
- 94V. RinaldiD
- 16A. HarrisF
- 32D. PhillipF
Form going into Columbus Crew vs Colorado Rapids
Columbus Crew
- L1-3New England Revolution30 August 2026
- L2-3away to Nashville SC23 August 2026
- L1-2CF Montreal19 August 2026
- L1-3away to Charlotte15 August 2026
- D2-2away to Inter Miami1 August 2026
Colorado Rapids
- W1-0Real Salt Lake30 August 2026
- L0-3away to San Diego23 August 2026
- W1-0Los Angeles FC20 August 2026
- W2-0Sporting Kansas City16 August 2026
- W1-0Austin2 August 2026
What these results say
- Columbus Crew did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Columbus Crew scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Columbus Crew conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Colorado Rapids won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Colorado Rapids scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Colorado Rapids kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Columbus Crew | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 29 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 27 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 38 | 38 | 0 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.