Columbus Crew
vs
Colorado Rapids
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 44% Columbus Crew, 27% draw, 29% Colorado Rapids — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Columbus Crew 1.52, Colorado Rapids 1.19.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Columbus Crew
No earlier matches on record this season.
Colorado Rapids
- W1-0Los Angeles FC20 August 2026
- W2-0Sporting Kansas City16 August 2026
- W1-0Austin2 August 2026
- L0-1away to St. Louis City26 July 2026
- W1-0San Diego23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Columbus Crew carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.53 for Colorado Rapids. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Columbus Crew L-W-D-L-L; Colorado Rapids W-L-W-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Columbus Crew and 1.19 for Colorado Rapids. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Columbus Crew rate 0.62 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Colorado Rapids rate 0.69 and 1.30.
That points to 51% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Columbus Crew the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Columbus Crew against 1.19 for Colorado Rapids. Columbus Crew's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.3 for Colorado Rapids.