Regular Season - 8 · 10 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv Premier League prediction

Chornomorets Stadium, Odessa

Our model says: Chornomorets 0–1 FC Kharkiv

The model makes it 25% Chornomorets, 31% draw, 44% FC Kharkiv — fair odds of 4.00, 3.23 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (16%).

Expected goals: Chornomorets 0.76, FC Kharkiv 1.39.

Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Chornomorets are 12th on 5 points from 6 games; FC Kharkiv are 5th on 12 points from 6 games — Premier League.
  • Chornomorets are without a win in 3, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Obolon'-Brovar.
  • FC Kharkiv are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Bukovyna.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 12 May 2024, ended Chornomorets 3–0 FC Kharkiv.

Live win probability

From kick-off
Chornomorets25%4.00
Draw31%3.23
FC Kharkiv44%2.27

These update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.

Model insights: Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv

41%
Both teams to score
36%
Over 2.5 goals
64%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Chornomorets win Draw FC Kharkiv win
  1. 0–116%
  2. 1–113%
  3. 0–012%
  4. 0–211%
  5. 1–29%
  6. 1–08%
  7. 0–35%

Scores read Chornomorets first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 26%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Kharkiv at 44% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv

Chornomorets

  • D1-1Obolon'-Brovar18 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Shakhtar Donetsk14 September 2026
  • D0-0Livyi Bereh4 September 2026
  • W1-0Kryvbas KR30 August 2026
  • L0-2away to LNZ Cherkasy16 August 2026

FC Kharkiv

  • W2-0Bukovyna19 September 2026
  • W5-0Obolon'-Brovar5 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Zorya Luhansk31 August 2026
  • L0-1Shakhtar Donetsk16 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Polessya10 August 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 5 matches for Chornomorets had two goals or fewer.
  • Chornomorets failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC Kharkiv scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Chornomorets612337-45
5FC Kharkiv6402124+812

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv

  • 12 May 2024Chornomorets 3–0 FC KharkivPremier League
  • 5 November 2023FC Kharkiv 2–1 ChornomoretsPremier League
  • 11 March 2023Chornomorets 1–1 FC KharkivPremier League
  • 27 August 2022FC Kharkiv 0–0 ChornomoretsPremier League
  • 12 December 2021Chornomorets 2–1 FC KharkivPremier League
  • 6 August 2021FC Kharkiv 3–2 ChornomoretsPremier League

The two sides

Chornomorets carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.7 for FC Kharkiv. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 0.76 goals for Chornomorets and 1.39 for FC Kharkiv. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Chornomorets rate 0.45 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Kharkiv rate 0.76 and 1.04.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Chornomorets a 0% chance of the title and FC Kharkiv 3.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FC Kharkiv the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Chornomorets against 1.39 for FC Kharkiv. Chornomorets's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.04 for FC Kharkiv.

Season stats

ChornomoretsFC Kharkiv
6Matches6
1W 2D 3LRecord4W 0D 2L
3 0.5 a gameGoals scored12 2.0 a game
7 1.2 a gameGoals conceded4 0.7 a game
2 of 6Clean sheets4 of 6
3 of 6Failed to score1 of 6
1 of 1Penalties scored1 of 1
11 1.8 a gameYellow cards5 0.8 a game
4-1-2-3 1×Usual shape4-1-4-1 2×

Chornomorets at home · FC Kharkiv away

4Played2
1W 2D 1LRecord1W 0D 1L
3–3Goals for – against4–3
2 of 4Clean sheets1 of 2

League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premier League matches this season: Chornomorets 6, FC Kharkiv 6.

Chornomorets scored 101001
FC Kharkiv conceded 110020
FC Kharkiv scored 411222
Chornomorets conceded 103201

FC Kharkiv score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Chornomorets have let in 1 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Chornomorets

FC Kharkiv

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.