Arsenal
vs
Leeds
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Arsenal 1–0 Leeds
The model makes it 51% Arsenal, 28% draw, 21% Leeds — fair odds of 1.96, 3.57 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Arsenal 1.79, Leeds 0.78.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Arsenal vs Leeds
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arsenal at 51% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 675 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Arsenal vs Leeds
Arsenal
- L0-3away to Brighton19 September 2026
- W2-0away to Sunderland12 September 2026
- W2-1Chelsea6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Aston Villa31 August 2026
- W3-0Coventry21 August 2026
Leeds
- D0-0Crystal Palace20 September 2026
- W4-1Newcastle14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Brighton5 September 2026
- D1-1Brentford30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Nottingham Forest22 August 2026
What these results say
- Arsenal won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arsenal scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Leeds went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Leeds scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Leeds had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 12 |
| 5 | Leeds | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Arsenal vs Leeds
- 31 January 2026Leeds 0–4 ArsenalPremier League
- 23 August 2025Arsenal 5–0 LeedsPremier League
- 1 April 2023Arsenal 4–1 LeedsPremier League
- 16 October 2022Leeds 0–1 ArsenalPremier League
- 8 May 2022Arsenal 2–1 LeedsPremier League
- 18 December 2021Leeds 1–4 ArsenalPremier League
Leading scorers: Arsenal and Leeds
Arsenal
- B. Saka3 goals
Leeds
- D. Calvert-Lewin3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Arsenal carry a model rating of 7.32 against 6.97 for Leeds. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.79 goals for Arsenal and 0.78 for Leeds. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arsenal rate 1.40 in attack and 0.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Leeds rate 1.00 and 0.80.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arsenal the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Arsenal against 0.78 for Leeds. Arsenal's attack/defence rating is 1.4/0.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/0.8 for Leeds.