Arsenal vs Leeds Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Arsenal 2-1 Leeds.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Arsenal, 25% draw, 18% Leeds — fair odds of 1.75, 4.00 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Arsenal at 57%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Arsenal vs Leeds
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1David RayaG
- 4B. WhiteD
- 15E. KonsaD
- 6Gabriel MagalhãesD
- 33R. CalafioriD
- 41D. RiceM
- 49M. Lewis-SkellyM
- 7B. SakaM
- 8M. ØdegaardM
- 20N. MaduekeM
- 29K. HavertzF
- 14V. GyökeresF
- 56M. DowmanF
- 39Bruno GuimarãesM
- 36Martín ZubimendiM
- 23Mikel MerinoM
- 10E. EzeM
- 12J. TimberD
- 5P. HincapiéD
- 13KepaG
- 1J. TraffordG
- 24J. JustinD
- 30N. ElvediD
- 5T. MuharemovićD
- 2J. BogleM
- 4E. AmpaduM
- 22A. TanakaM
- 3G. GudmundssonM
- 18A. StachM
- 19N. OkaforM
- 9D. Calvert-LewinF
- 14L. NmechaF
- 23J. BahoyaF
- 16M. ZettererG
- 26M. BardD
- 15J. BijolD
- 8S. LongstaffM
- 44I. GruevM
- 10H. WilsonF
- 11B. AaronsonM
Form going into Arsenal vs Leeds
Arsenal
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Dinamo Brest9 October 2026
- L0-3away to Brighton19 September 2026
- W2-0away to Sunderland12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Napoli9 September 2026
- W2-1Chelsea6 September 2026
Leeds
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Crystal Palace20 September 2026
- W4-1Newcastle14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Brighton5 September 2026
- D1-1Brentford30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Nottingham Forest22 August 2026
What these results say
- Leeds went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Leeds scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Leeds had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 27 |
| 9 | Leeds | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arsenal vs Leeds
- 31 January 2026Leeds 0–4 ArsenalPremier League
- 23 August 2025Arsenal 5–0 LeedsPremier League
- 1 April 2023Arsenal 4–1 LeedsPremier League
- 16 October 2022Leeds 0–1 ArsenalPremier League
- 8 May 2022Arsenal 2–1 LeedsPremier League
Leading scorers: Arsenal and Leeds
Arsenal
GoalsAssists
- K. Havertz30
- M. Ødegaard30
Leeds
GoalsAssists
- D. Calvert-Lewin31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Arsenal beat Leeds 2–1. The model had made a win for Arsenal its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: James Justin 55' for Leeds, Riccardo Calafiori 62' for Arsenal, Bruno Guimarães 70' for Arsenal. On expected goals it finished 2.66–0.74.
How the call on Arsenal v Leeds has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 51% / 28% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 57% / 25% / 18%: the biggest move is Arsenal's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Arsenal win57%▲ +6
- Draw25%▼ −3
- Leeds win18%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.