Naftan
vs
Belshina
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Naftan 1–2 Belshina
The model makes it 35% Naftan, 27% draw, 38% Belshina — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Naftan 1.60, Belshina 1.73.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Naftan and Belshina are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Naftan are bottom on 14 points from 23 games; Belshina are 13th on 21 points from 22 games — Premier League.
- Naftan have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win away to Slavia Mozyr.
- Belshina are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 2-0 win at home to FC Minsk.
- Last 6 meetings: Belshina 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 23 May 2026, ended Belshina 5–1 Naftan.
All Belarusian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Naftan vs Belshina
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Belshina at 38% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Naftan vs Belshina
Naftan
- W1-0away to Slavia Mozyr19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bate Borisov13 September 2026
- L0-3FC Minsk6 September 2026
- L1-5away to Dinamo Minsk2 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Vitebsk28 August 2026
Belshina
- W2-0FC Minsk18 September 2026
- D1-1away to FC Vitebsk12 September 2026
- D2-2Neman6 September 2026
- D1-1away to ML Vitebsk2 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Gomel28 August 2026
What these results say
- Naftan failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Naftan conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Belshina failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Belshina scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Belshina conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Naftan | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 20 | 54 | -34 | 14 |
| 13 | Belshina | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 22 | 36 | -14 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Naftan vs Belshina
- 23 May 2026Belshina 5–1 NaftanPremier League
- 30 September 2023Belshina 0–3 NaftanPremier League
- 14 May 2023Naftan 0–1 BelshinaPremier League
- 25 September 2021Belshina 4–0 Naftan1. Division
- 4 August 2021Naftan 0–0 Belshina1. Division
- 24 April 2021Belshina 1–1 Naftan1. Division
The two sides
Naftan carry a model rating of 5.86 against 6.04 for Belshina. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for Naftan and 1.73 for Belshina. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Naftan rate 0.44 in attack and 3.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Belshina rate 0.44 and 2.24.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Belshina the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Naftan against 1.73 for Belshina. Naftan's attack/defence rating is 0.44/3.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/2.24 for Belshina.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Naftan at home · Belshina away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Naftan 23, Belshina 22.
Naftan score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Belshina have let in 7 there.
Belshina score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Naftan have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Naftan
- at Torpedo Zhodino17 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 21%
- vs FC Isloch Minsk R.24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 21%
- at Baranovichi31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 23%
- vs ML Vitebsk7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 19%
- at Dinamo Brest21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 14%
Belshina
- vs Slavia Mozyr17 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- at Bate Borisov24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 30%
- at Torpedo Zhodino31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs FC Isloch Minsk R.7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.