Neftchi Baku
vs
Sabah FA
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Neftchi Baku 1–2 Sabah FA
The model makes it 36% Neftchi Baku, 27% draw, 37% Sabah FA — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Neftchi Baku 1.67, Sabah FA 1.73.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Neftchi Baku and Sabah FA are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Neftchi Baku are top on 15 points from 6 games; Sabah FA are 2nd on 15 points from 5 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Neftchi Baku are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 3-0 win away to Qabala.
- Sabah FA are unbeaten in their last 5 (5 won), most recently a 3-1 win at home to Imisli FK.
- Last 6 meetings: Sabah FA 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Sabah FA 1–2 Neftchi Baku.
All Azerbaijan Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Neftchi Baku vs Sabah FA
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sabah FA at 37% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Neftchi Baku vs Sabah FA
Neftchi Baku
- W3-0away to Qabala18 September 2026
- W3-2away to Imisli FK11 September 2026
- W4-1Safa Baku5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Zira30 August 2026
- W5-0Araz23 August 2026
Sabah FA
- W3-1Imisli FK19 September 2026
- W3-0away to Safa Baku14 September 2026
- W5-0Zira5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Araz31 August 2026
- W2-0Kapaz15 August 2026
What these results say
- Neftchi Baku won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Neftchi Baku scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Neftchi Baku had three goals or more.
- Sabah FA won every one of these 5 matches.
- Sabah FA scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sabah FA kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Baku | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 15 |
| 2 | Sabah FA | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Neftchi Baku vs Sabah FA
- 17 May 2026Sabah FA 1–2 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
- 8 December 2025Sabah FA 2–0 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
- 14 September 2025Neftchi Baku 0–0 Sabah FAPremyer Liqa
- 24 May 2025Sabah FA 1–0 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
- 23 April 2025Sabah FA 1–1 Neftchi BakuCup
- 2 April 2025Neftchi Baku 1–2 Sabah FACup
The two sides
Neftchi Baku carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.85 for Sabah FA. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for Neftchi Baku and 1.73 for Sabah FA. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Neftchi Baku rate 0.98 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sabah FA rate 1.05 and 1.05.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Neftchi Baku, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Neftchi Baku a 14.5% chance of the title and Sabah FA 67.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sabah FA the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Neftchi Baku against 1.73 for Sabah FA. Neftchi Baku's attack/defence rating is 0.98/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.05/1.05 for Sabah FA.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Neftchi Baku at home · Sabah FA away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Neftchi Baku 6, Sabah FA 5.
Neftchi Baku score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Sabah FA have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Neftchi Baku
- at Qarabag17 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 28%
- vs Turan24 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 50%
- at Şamaxı FK31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 44%
- vs Kapaz7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 66%
- at Araz21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 51%
Sabah FA
- vs Slavia Praha13 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 31%
- at Qabala17 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 56%
- vs Borussia Dortmund20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 27%
- vs Qarabag25 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 47%
- at Turan31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.