Al Kholood
vs
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al Kholood 1–2 Al-Qadisiyah FC
The model makes it 22% Al Kholood, 24% draw, 54% Al-Qadisiyah FC — fair odds of 4.55, 4.17 and 1.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Al Kholood 1.25, Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.62.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Qadisiyah FC at 54% here. Across 2823 settled matches, 673 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al Kholood
- L0-2away to Al Riyadh13 September 2026
- W2-1Al Shabab9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Al-Fayha3 September 2026
- W3-1Al-Ahli Jeddah29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Al Diriyah26 August 2026
Al-Qadisiyah FC
- D3-3Al-Ettifaq11 September 2026
- W3-2Al-Ahli Jeddah8 September 2026
- W2-0away to Al Diriyah3 September 2026
- W3-1Al-Faisaly FC30 August 2026
- W2-0away to NEOM24 August 2026
What these results say
- Al Kholood conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al Kholood scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Al Kholood.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Al Kholood | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 12 |
| 4 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
- 7 March 2026Al Kholood 1–4 Al-Qadisiyah FCPro League
- 6 November 2025Al-Qadisiyah FC 4–0 Al KholoodPro League
- 2 May 2025Al-Qadisiyah FC 4–1 Al KholoodPro League
- 6 December 2024Al Kholood 0–3 Al-Qadisiyah FCPro League
- 9 March 2024Al-Qadisiyah FC 2–0 Al KholoodDivision 1
- 25 October 2023Al Kholood 0–2 Al-Qadisiyah FCDivision 1
Leading scorers: Al Kholood and Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al Kholood
- Iker Kortajarena4 goals1 assists
- J. Domingues3 goals2 assists
Al-Qadisiyah FC
- M. Retegui4 goals
- Mohammed Abu Al Shamat3 goals3 assists
- J. Quiñones3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Al Kholood carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.91 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for Al Kholood and 2.62 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Kholood rate 0.70 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Qadisiyah FC rate 1.20 and 1.09.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al Kholood a 0% chance of the title and Al-Qadisiyah FC 11.8%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1320 correct results out of 2823 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Al Kholood against 2.62 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Al Kholood's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.2/1.09 for Al-Qadisiyah FC.